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US and euro area economic data are buoyant, albeit politics (US tax-plan, German coalition talks) remain a source of uncertainty for global assets

Εθνική Τράπεζα της Ελλάδος/Διεθνής Οικονομία και Αγορές, (2017), «US and euro area economic data are buoyant, albeit politics (US tax-plan, German coalition talks) remain a source of uncertainty for global assets», 21 Νοεμβρίου The euro area economic recovery has shown signs of increasing synchronization, with French and Italian GDP growth both picking up (see graph). Politics continue to cause uncertainty in the euro area, with coalition talks breaking down in Germany, …Read More

Leverage and limited liability: A toxic cocktail

Jean-Pierre Danthine, (2017), «Leverage and limited liability: A toxic cocktail», VoxEU,21 Νοεμβρίου There is little debate that one of the main causes of the Global Crisis was excessive risk-taking by large international financial institutions. Most observers would also agree that much has been accomplished under Basel III to address the problem. Banks today are required to have more and better equity capital, they are required to prepare ‘recovery and resolution …Read More

ECB, Greece And The Ticking NPL Time-Bomb

Marcello Minenna, (2017), «ECB, Greece And The Ticking NPL Time-Bomb», Social Europe, 22 Νοεμβρίου After the ECB regulatory tightening on banks’ non-performing loans (NPLs), announced with the well-known “addendum” to its guidance to banks of October 5, a barrage of anger came from the Italian banks and institutions (even the Minister of Economy Pier Carlo Padoan and the Bank of Italy took a stand) to defend the threatened stability of …Read More

The Twilight of Angela Merkel

Philippe Legrain, (2017), «The Twilight of Angela Merkel», Project Syndicate, 21 Νοεμβρίου While Angela Merkel’s departure may not be imminent, her power is leaching away. With Germany set to turn further inward as it struggles to form a new government – and possibly heads to another federal election next year – a hole has emerged at the heart of Europe, and France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, will not be able to …Read More

Ευφορία στις αγορές Ευρώπης, ΗΠΑ, Ασίας

Η Καθημερινή, (2017), «Ευφορία στις αγορές Ευρώπης, ΗΠΑ, Ασίας»,  22 Νοεμβρίου Συντονισμένη άνοδο σημείωσαν χθες τα χρηματιστήρια σε Ευρώπη, Αμερική και Ασία, με τον δείκτη S&P 500 να καταγράφει, ενδοσυνεδριακά, νέο ιστορικό ρεκόρ. Είχε προηγηθεί ένας συνδυασμός από καλά αποτελέσματα επιχειρήσεων, σταθερούς ρυθμούς ανάπτυξης και αισιόδοξες προβλέψεις από την Goldman Sachs. Ο επενδυτικός κολοσσός αναβάθμισε στις 2.850 μονάδες από τις 2.500 μονάδες την πρόβλεψή του για την πορεία του S&P 500 …Read More

Has the Phillips curve disappeared?

Silvia Merler, (2017), «Has the Phillips curve disappeared?», Bruegel, 21 Νοεμβρίου The Economist argues that the Phillips curve may be broken for good, showing a chart of average inflation and cyclical unemployment for advanced economies, which has flattened over time (Figure 1). The Economist also refers to a recent paper by three economists at the Philadelphia Fed, arguing that the Phillips curve is not very useful at forecasting inflation: their …Read More

Το πολιτικό ρίσκο στην Ευρώπη και η… Γερμανία

Jamie McGeever, (2017), «Το πολιτικό ρίσκο στην Ευρώπη και η… Γερμανία», Η Καθημερινή, 21 Νοεμβρίου Μέχρι τώρα οι αγορές δεν είχαν αναστατωθεί και τα όποια σημάδια αδυναμίας που προέκυψαν χθες το πρωί καταπνίγηκαν χάρη στη γενικότερη οικονομική ανάκαμψη και τα εταιρικά αποτελέσματα. Θα μπορούσε κάλλιστα να είναι αυτή η πορεία των αγορών και τις επόμενες εβδομάδες και μήνες αν συμπεριφερθούν όπως το 2016 και αν η ανάκαμψη της οικονομίας συνεχίσει …Read More

Dear EU: There’s More to Europe Than Paris and Amsterdam

Ferdinando Giugliano, (2017), «Dear EU: There’s More to Europe Than Paris and Amsterdam», BloombergView, 22 Νοεμβρίου Τhe European Banking Authority and the European Medical Agency will leave London and relocate, respectively, to Paris and Amsterdam. There was the usual ferocious lobbying, but ultimately the choice was open and transparent; it just wasn’t particularly clever. The EU could have been more strategic about its future. Σχετικές Αναρτήσεις Dirk Schoenmaker, Nicolas Veron, …Read More

Industrial production down by 0.6% in euro area

Eurostat/Industrial production down by 0.6% in euro area/14 Νοεμβρίου 2017 In September 2017 compared with August 2017, seasonally adjusted industrial production fell by 0.6% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.5% in the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In August 2017, industrial production rose by 1.4% in the euro area and by 1.7% in the EU28. Σχετικές Αναρτήσεις Eurostat/Industrial production up by 0.5% …Read More

Euro area international trade in goods surplus €26.4 bn

Eurostat/Euro area international trade in goods surplus €26.4 bn/15 Νοεμβρίου 2017 The first estimate for euro area (EA19) exports of goods to the rest of the world in September 2017 was €187.1 billion, an increase of 5.6% compared with September 2016 (€177.2 bn). Imports from the rest of the world stood at €160.7 bn, a rise of 5.1% compared with September 2016 (€152.9 bn). As a result, the euro area recorded a …Read More

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