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Fiscal Sustainability Report 2018 Volume 1

European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs, (2019), «Fiscal Sustainability Report 2018 Volume 1», Institutional Paper 094, 18 Ιανουαρίου The EU government debt ratio has been continuously decreasing since 2014, and reached around 81% of GDP in 2018, supported by the solid economic activity – albeit a slower growth pace last year – still favourable financial conditions, and a broadly stable fiscal outlook. At the same time, some other advanced economies exhibit much higher …Read More

World Economic Outlook Update, January 2019

IMF, (2019), «World Economic Outlook Update, January 2019», International Monetary Fund, Ιανουάριος 2019 The global expansion has weakened. Global growth for 2018 is estimated at 3.7 percent, as in the October 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast, despite weaker performance in some economies, notably Europe and Asia. The global economy is projected to grow at 3.5 percent in 2019 and 3.6 percent in 2020, 0.2 and 0.1 percentage point below last …Read More

Public debt through the ages

Barry J. Eichengreen ; Asmaa A ElGanainy ; Rui Pedro Esteves ; Kris James Mitchener, (2019), «Public debt through the ages», IMF Working Paper No 19/6, 15 Ιανουαρίου We consider public debt from a long-term historical perspective, showing how the purposes for which governments borrow have evolved over time. Periods when debt-to-GDP ratios rose explosively as a result of wars, depressions and financial crises also have a long history. Many …Read More

After the meaningful vote: What are Theresa May’s options?

Sam Lowe, John Springford, (2019), «After the meaningful vote: What are Theresa May’s options?», CER, 16 Ιανουαρίου It is difficult to see an obvious pathway toward the UK remaining in the EU – be it by a second referendum or a decision made by parliament. It would probably require a change of heart by Jeremy Corbyn, who opposes a re-run of the referendum, and by May. One possible scenario is …Read More

Normalisation of the ECB’s monetary policy is timely

Peter Bofinger, (2019), «Normalisation of the ECB’s monetary policy is timely», The Progressive Post, 11 Ιανουαρίου If everything goes according to plan, the European Central Bank (ECB) will end its “extended asset purchase programme” at the end of the year. This marks the end of a three-year phase in which public sector and private bonds totaling 2 trillion euros were bought. The high level of these unconventional measures naturally raises the …Read More

Spain is no longer exceptional: Mainstream media and the far-right party Vox

Sergio Olalla, Enrique Chueca and Javier Padilla, (2019), «Spain is no longer exceptional: Mainstream media and the far-right party Vox», LSE Eurocrisis in the Press, 10 Ιανουαρίου For a long time Spain and Portugal have been considered exceptions within the European Union due to the lack of a far-right political party with representation in parliament. However, this situation is no longer the case in Spain due to the recent entrance of Vox …Read More

The ECB’s performance during the crisis: Lessons learned

Ashoka Mody, Milan Nedeljkovic, (2019), «The ECB’s performance during the crisis: Lessons learned», VoxEu.org, 14 Ιανουαρίου Dollar liquidity was a very particular need. By alleviating the dollar shortage, the Fed made a significant contribution to the euro area’s stabilisation. In contrast, the ECB’s euro liquidity to banks, by its very design, did little to create confidence in economic prospects. While the liquidity did bring temporary calm, it increased the risk-taking …Read More

The implications of no-deal Brexit: is the European Union prepared?

Guntram B. Wolff, (2019), «The implications of no-deal Brexit: is the European Union prepared?», Bruegel, 14 Ιανουαρίου Overall, a no-deal Brexit would be disruptive in the short-term: There would be immediate very significant administrative and logistical challenges in trade. Preparations to reduce those disruptions are underway but are unlikely to be sufficient. But while Most-Favoured Nation tariffs will affect some sectors significantly, the macroeconomic effect on the German economy might not be …Read More

The mixed success of the Stability and Growth Pact

Jasper De Jong, Niels Gilbert, (2019), «The mixed success of the Stability and Growth Pact», VoxEU.org, 15 Ιανουαρίου The corrective arm of the SGP has both been ridiculed by those highlighting that despite non-compliance sanctions have never been imposed, and vilified by those blaming it for having caused procyclical fiscal tightening. This column suggests there is probably more truth to the latter than the former criticism. While we find indications …Read More

Debt overhang, rollover risk, and corporate investment: Evidence from the European crisis

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Luc Laeven, David Moreno, (2019), «Debt overhang, rollover risk, and corporate investment: Evidence from the European crisis», VoxEU.org, 15 Ιανουαρίου We argue that the maturity structure of corporate debt is crucial in understanding the effect of debt on firm-level investment. If the debt accumulated during the boom years is mostly short-term – i.e. its remaining maturity is less than one year – there is an increase in the …Read More