Poghosyan, Tigran, (2015), “How Do Public Debt Cycles Interact with Financial Cycles?”, IMF, Νοέμβριος. We employ a duration model to study determinants of public debt cycles in 57 advanced and emerging economies over the 1960–2014 period, with a particular focus on the impact of financial cycles. The results suggest that the association between financial and debt cycles is asymmetric. Debt expansions preceded by overheating in credit and financial markets tend to …Read More
Estimating the Bridge Financing Needs of the Single Resolution Fund: How expensive is it to resolve a bank?
De Groen, Willem Pieter, Gros, Daniel, (2015), “Estimating the Bridge Financing Needs of the Single Resolution Fund: How expensive is it to resolve a bank?”, CEPS, No. 122, Νοέμβριος. The Single Resolution Board (SRB) will be responsible for the resolution of banks in the euro area from 1 January 2016. However, the resources of the Single Resolution Fund (SRF) at the disposal of the SRB will only gradually be built up until 2023. This paper …Read More
Asset purchase programmes and financial markets: lessons from the euro area
Altavilla, Carlo, Carboni , Giacomo, Motto, Roberto, (2015), “Asset purchase programmes and financial markets: lessons from the euro area”, Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, 5 Νοεμβρίου We evaluate the effects on asset prices of the ECB asset purchase programme (APP) announced in January 2015 and assess its main transmission channels. We do so by first extending a term structure model with bond supply effects to account for assets with different types of …Read More
Interconnectedness of the banking sector as a vulnerability to crises
Peltonen, Tuomas A., Rancan, Michela, Sarlin, Peter, (2015), “Interconnectedness of the banking sector as a vulnerability to crises”, ECB Working Paper 1866, Νοέμβριος. This paper uses macro-networks to measure the interconnectedness of the banking sector, and relates it to banking crises in Europe. Beyond cross-border financial linkages of the banking sector, macro-networks also account for financial linkages to the other main financial and non-financial sectors within the economy. We enrich conventional earlywarning models using …Read More
Rebooting the Eurozone: Step 1 – agreeing a crisis narrative
Baldwin, Richard, Beck, Thorsten, Bénassy-Quéré, Agnès, Blanchard, Olivier, Corsetti, Giancarlo, de Grauwe, Paul, den Haan, Wouter Giavazzi, Francesco, Gros, Daniel, Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem, Micossi, Stefano, Papaioannou, Elias, Pesenti, Paolo, Pissarides, Christopher, Tabellini, Guido, Weder di Mauro, Beatrice, (2015), “Rebooting the Eurozone: Step 1 – agreeing a crisis narrative”, Centre for Economic Policy Research, 19 Νοεμβρίου. The Eurozone Crisis, which broke out in May 2010, is a long way from finished. Worse yet, many of the fragilities and imbalances that primed the monetary union for the …Read More
Squaring the cycle: capital flows, financial cycles, and macro-prudential policy in the euro area
Merler, Silvia, (2015), ” Squaring the cycle: capital flows, financial cycles, and macro-prudential policy in the euro area”, Bruegel Publications, Νοέμβριος. The financial crisis has prompted a renewed interest in macro-prudential policy as a framework to address the stability of the financial system as a whole, rather than only its individual components. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the European macro-prudential discussion by establishing empirically the special challenges that …Read More
Βιβλιοθήκη » EE » Οικονομία » Πολιτική » Επιστημονικά Άρθρα
Steady as She Goes— Estimating Potential Output During Financial “Booms and Busts”
Berger, Helge, Dowling, Thomas, Lanau, Sergi, Lian, Weicheng, Mrkaic, Mico, Rabanal, Pau, Sanjani, Marzie Taheri, (2015), “Steady as She Goes— Estimating Potential Output During Financial “Booms and Busts””, IMF, 6 Νοεμβρίου. Potential output—in the sense of the GDP level or path an economy can sustain over the medium term—is a crucial benchmark for policymakers. However, it is difficult to estimate when financial “booms and busts” are driving the real economy. This paper uses a simple multivariate filtering approach …Read More
The Distribution of Debt Across Euro Area Countries: The Role of Individual Characteristics, Institutions and Credit Conditions
Bover, Olympia, Casado, José Maria, Costa, Sonia, Du Caju, Philip, McCarthy,Yvonne, Sierminska, Eva, Tzamourani, Panagiota, Villanueva, Ernesto, Zavadil,Tibor, (2015), “The Distribution of Debt Across Euro Area Countries: The Role of Individual Characteristics, Institutions and Credit Conditions”, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Νοέμβριος. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we present an up-to-date assessment of the differences across euro area countries in the distributions of various measures of debt conditional on household characteristics. We consider three different …Read More
Youth Unemployment and Active Labor Market Policies in Europe
Caliendo, Marco, Schmidl, Ricarda, (2015), “Youth Unemployment and Active Labor Market Policies in Europe”, IZA, Νοέμβριος. Since the economic crisis in 2008, European youth unemployment rates have been persistently high at around 20% on average. The majority of European countries spends significant resources each year on active labor market programs (ALMP) with the aim of improving the integration prospects of struggling youths. Among the most common programs used are training courses, job search …Read More
Βιβλιοθήκη » EE » Κοινωνία » Οικονομία » Επιστημονικά Άρθρα
Economic Uncertainty and Structural Reforms
Bonfiglioli, Alessandra, Gancia, Gino A, (2015), “Economic Uncertainty and Structural Reforms”,Centre for Economic Policy Research, Νοέμβριος. Does economic uncertainty promote the implementation of structural reforms? We answer this question using one of the most exhaustive cross-country panel data set on reforms in six major areas and measuring economic uncertainty with stock market volatility. To address endogeneity concerns, we propose various identification strategies, instrumenting uncertainty with world shocks to volatility and with natural disasters, …Read More