Honkkila, J. and Kavonius, I.K., (2013), “Micro and Macro analysis on household income, wealth and saving in the euro area”, European Central Bank, Working Paper No. 1619, Νοέμβριος. The report on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress by Stiglitz, Sen and Fitoussi concludes that in the measurement of household welfare all material components should be covered, i.e. consumption, income and wealth, from both the micro as well as …Read More

Georgiadis, G. and Grab, J., (2013), “Growth, real exchange rates and trade protectionism since the financial crisis”, European Central Bank, Working Paper No. 1618, Νοέμβριος. Existing evidence suggests that protectionist activity since the financial crisis has been muted, raising the question whether the historically well-documented relationship between growth, real exchange rates and trade protectionism has broken down. This paper re-visits this relationship for the time period since 2009. To this …Read More

Baldacci, Ε., Gupta, S. and Mulas-Granados, C., (2013), “Debt Reduction, Fiscal Adjustment, and Growth in Credit-Constrained Economies”, International Monetary Fund, Working Paper No.13/238, 22 Νοεμβρίου. This paper assesses the effects of fiscal consolidations associated with public debt reduction on medium-term output growth during periods of private debt deleveraging. The analysis covers 107 countries and 79 episodes of public debt reduction driven by discretionary fiscal adjustments during 1980–2012. It shows that …Read More

Berthou, A. and Vicard, V., (2013), “Firms’ export dynamics: Experience vs. size”, European Central Bank, Working Paper Series, No. 1616, Νοέμβριος. This paper provides evidence about the impact that size and experience in exporting have on firms’ dynamics, a critical input in models of firms dynamics. The analysis uses a census of French exports by firm-destination-product over the period 1994-2008 with a monthly frequency. We first uncover a large calendar …Read More

Dell’Ariccia, G. and Ratnovski, L., (2013), “Bailouts and Systemic Insurance”, International Monetary Fund, WP/13/233, Νοέμβριος. We revisit the link between bailouts and bank risk taking. The expectation of government support to failing banks creates moral hazard—increases bank risk taking. However, when a bank’s success depends on both its effort and the overall stability of the banking system, a government’s commitment to shield banks from contagion may increase their incentives to …Read More

Pennings, S. and Pérez Ruiz, E., (2013), “Fiscal Consolidations and Growth: Does Speed Matter?”, International Monetary Fund, Working Paper No. 13/230, Νοέμβριος. Should fiscal consolidations be front-loaded or proceed at a more steady pace, and how does this affect growth? We make an attempt to address this question using a three-step methodology. First, we modify a standard regression of growth on consolidation size to allow speed to affect the multiplier. …Read More

Corsetti, G., Kuester, K., Meier, A. and Müller, G., (2013), “Sovereign Risk and Belief-Driven Fluctuations in the Euro Area”, International Monetary Fund, IMF Working Paper, WP/13/227. Sovereign risk premia in several euro area countries have risen markedly since 2008, driving up credit spreads in the private sector as well. We propose a New Keynesian model of a two-region monetary union that accounts for this “sovereign risk channel.” The model is …Read More

Pegasiou, A., (2013), “The Cypriot Economic Collapse: More Than a Conventional South European Failure”, Mediterranean Politics, Volume 18, Issue 3, pp. 333-351. In trying to assess the causes behind Cyprus’s request for a financial bailout, the paper takes a step back and reviews the economy of the island within a comparative political economy framework. With reference made to varieties of capitalism (VoC) literature, the paper sets a twofold target. Initially, …Read More

In’t Veld, Y., (2013), “Fiscal consolidations and spillovers in the Euro are periphery and core”, European Commission, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, Economic Papers 506, Οκτώβριος. This paper uses a structural multi-country model to assess the impact of fiscal consolidation measures undertaken in 2011-13 in the EA periphery and core. The simulations assume ‘crisis’ conditions prevailing (high share of constrained households, ZLB). The GDP effects depend crucially on the …Read More