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Spain: Maintain reform momentum to enhance economic recovery and boost inclusive growth

OECD, (2017), “Spain: Maintain reform momentum to enhance economic recovery and boost inclusive growth”, 14 Μαρτίου The Spanish economy is enjoying a robust recovery from a deep recession, with structural reforms contributing to high growth rates and a gradual decline in unemployment. However, further measures to promote innovative business investment and improve skills are needed to both boost productivity and ensure that the benefits of growth reach all Spaniards, according …Read More

Aftershocks of Monetary Unification : Hysteresis with a Financial Twist

Eichengreen, Barry J., Bayoumi, Tamim, (2017), “Aftershocks of Monetary Unification : Hysteresis with a Financial Twist”, IMF, 13 Μαρτίου Once upon a time, in the 1990s, it was widely agreed that neither Europe nor the United States was an optimum currency area, although moderating this concern was the finding that it was possible to distinguish a regional core and periphery (Bayoumi and Eichengreen, 1993). Revisiting these issues, we find that …Read More

Public Debt Sustainability Under Uncertainty : An Invariant Set Approach

Rozenov, Rossen, (2017), “Public Debt Sustainability Under Uncertainty : An Invariant Set Approach”, IMF Working Paper, 13 Μαρτίου The question of what level of public debt a country can afford is central to fiscal policy. Vast literature is devoted to debt sustainability and an array of tools has been developed to guide assessment. A comprehensive review of previous work on the subject is beyond the scope of this paper and …Read More

ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area

European Central Bank/ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, Μάρτιος 2017 The economic recovery in the euro area is projected to firm further, at a pace slightly above previous expectations. The expected global recovery and resilient domestic demand, supported by the very accommodative monetary policy stance, past progress made in deleveraging across sectors and a continued improvement in the labour market are projected to sustain the recovery over the projection horizon. The recent oil …Read More

Fundamental uncertainty and unconventional monetary policy: an info-gap approach

Ben-Haim, Yakov, Demertzis, Maria, van den End, Jan Willem, (2017), “Fundamental uncertainty and unconventional monetary policy: an info-gap approach”, Bruegel, 28 Φεβρουαρίου This paper applies the info-gap approach to the unconventional monetary policy of the Eurosystem and so takes into account the fundamental uncertainty on inflation shocks and the transmission mechanism. The outcomes show that a more demanding monetary strategy, in terms of lower tolerance for output and inflation gaps, entails …Read More

Governments and Promised Fiscal Consolidations : Do They Mean What They Say?

Mulas-Granados, Carlos, Jalles, João Tovar, Schena, Michela, Gupta, Sanjeev, (2017), “Governments and Promised Fiscal Consolidations : Do They Mean What They Say?”, IMF Working Papers No. 17/39, 23 Φεβρουαρίου This paper analyses the causes and consequences of fiscal consolidation promise gaps, defined as the distance between planned fiscal adjustments and actual consolidations. Using 74 consolidation episodes derived from the narrative approach in 17 advanced economies during 1978 – 2015, the paper …Read More

Unleashing Innovation and Entrepreneurship in Europe: People, Places and Policies

Leceta, Manuel, Renda, Andrea, Konnola, Totti, Simonelli, Felice, (2017), “Unleashing Innovation and Entrepreneurship in Europe: People, Places and Policies”, Report of a CEPS Task Force, 22 Φεβρουαρίου This report sets out the elements for the design of a streamlined and future-proof policy on innovation and entrepreneurship in Europe. It is the result of a collective effort led by CEPS, which formed a Task Force on Innovation and Entrepreneurship in the EU, …Read More

European Semester Winter Package: review of Member States’ progress towards economic and social priorities

European Commission, (2017), “European Semester Winter Package: review of Member States’ progress towards economic and social priorities”, European Commission – Press release, 22 Φεβρουαρίου The European Commission today publishes its annual analysis of the economic and social situation in the Member States, including an assessment of remaining imbalances. It also publishes a report on the implementation of the Fiscal Compact, a report analysing the debt situation in Italy and a …Read More

The effect of public investment in Europe: a model-based assessment

de Jong, Jasper, Ferdinandusse, Marien, Funda, Josip, Vetlov, Igor, (2017), ” The effect of public investment in Europe: a model-based assessment”, ECB Working Paper Series No 2021, Φεβρουάριος Public investment in Europe has significantly declined since the crisis, although developments are heterogeneous across countries. This has led to calls for stimulating public investment in an environment of low borrowing costs for governments, weak economic growth and monetary policy at the lower bound. …Read More

Banks, Firms, and Jobs

Presbitero, Andrea, Berton, Fabio, Richiardi, Matteo, Mocetti, Sauro, (2017), “Banks, Firms, and Jobs”, IMF Working Paper No. 17/38, 14 Φεβρουαρίου We analyze the employment effects of financial shocks using a rich data set of job contracts, matched with the universe of firms and their lending banks in one Italian region. To isolate the effect of the financial shock we construct a firm-specific time-varying measure of credit supply. The contraction in credit …Read More