Barnichon, Régis, Garda, Paula, (2015), “Forecasting Unemployment across Countries: the Ins and Outs”, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Νοέμβριος.
This paper evaluates the flow approach to unemployment forecasting proposed by Barnichon and Nekarda (2012) for a set of OECD countries characterized by very different labor markets. We find that the flow approach yields substantial improvements in forecast accuracy over professional forecasts for all countries, with especially large improvements at longer horizons (one-year ahead forecasts) for European countries. Moreover, the flow approach has the highest predictive ability during recessions and turning points, when unemployment forecasts are most valuable.
Σχετικές Αναρτήσεις
- Eurostat/September 2015/192/2015 – 30 October 2015
- Constâncio, Vítor, Hartmann, Philipp, Tristani, Oreste, (2015), “Selected Takeaways from the ECB’s Sintra Forum on “Inflation and Unemployment in Europe” “, Voxeu, 28 Οκτωβρίου.