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European Business Cycle Indicators – 3rd Quarter 2016

European Commission, (2016), “European Business Cycle Indicators – 3rd Quarter 2016”, European Commission Publications, 7 Οκτωβρίου

Both the euro-area and EU Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESI) moved broadly sideways in the third quarter of 2016. Standing at 104.9 (euro area) and 105.6 (EU) points respectively, both indicators remain comfortably above their longterm average of 100. From a sectoral perspective, the euro area and the EU witnessed a flat evolution of consumer confidence, as well as three of the four surveyed business sectors (industry, services, retail trade). Only the construction sector reported significantly improved sentiment. From a country perspective, changes compared to June were very limited. Sentiment improved mildly in three of the seven largest EU economies, namely in Poland (+1.5), France (+1.2) and Germany (+0.7), while it deteriorated in the UK (-2.4), the Netherlands (-1.9), Spain (-1.5) and Italy (-1.3). Capacity utilisation in the manufacturing sector increased by 0.4 percentage points in the EU, while it remained almost unchanged in the euro area (+0.1 percentage points). Currently, both indicators are about half a percentage point above their long-term averages. In the services sector, capacity utilisation showed no (euro area) or slightly positive (EU: +0.2) changes compared to Q2.

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