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Global Markets Outlook & Strategy

Mylonas, Paul, Tsirigotakis, Ilias, Bakalis, Panagiotis, Ioannidis, Lazaros, Karagianni, Vasiliki (2017), “Global Markets Outlook & Strategy”, National Bank of Greece, Economic Research Division, Μάρτιος

2017 global GDP is expected to accelerate, albeit with high uncertainty regarding the policy stance of the US (fiscal, trade) and its consequences, particularly for emerging markets.

The inflation outlook is clearer as inflation expectations are increasing, wage pressures are building, particularly in the US, and the annual rate of change of commodity prices is positive.

Fiscal policy in advanced economies will be supportive of growth for a second consecutive year, albeit only slightly, but following several years of consolidation. The expected US package would support the economy towards Q4:17/ H1:18.

Monetary policy remains accommodative, with central banks’ balance sheets expanding significantly during the year. However, central bank liquidity has likely reached its peak.


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