Garcia-Herrero, Alicia, Turegano, David Martinez, (2017), “Who would bet on currency unions after EMU crisis?”, Bruegel, 29 Μαρτίου
The recent years of crisis have made clear that real convergence in the euro area has been insufficient to prevent stress through asymmetric shocks. Following this experience, and building on earlier work, we assess the opportunities for current union in the two most promising integration processes in the emerging world: ASEAN and the Pacific Alliance. We conclude that both blocs are also far from an Optimal Currency Area (OCA) and should pursue other forms of coordination to be successful.
The degree of integration in the ASEAN, and particularly in the Pacific Alliance, is limited compared to EMU standards when measured as financial, trade and migration relations (Chart 1). Given a negative correlation between the size and openness of countries, this result is widely consistent with the dimensions of the different economic areas. However, other factors might be playing a significant role. These include geographical conditions, which ease trade through land connections in the EMU and through maritime routes in the ASEAN, in clear contrast with the harder natural barriers present in the Pacific Alliance. Lower levels of financial development in the ASEAN and Pacific Alliance regions must also be having an impact through limited cross-border flows.
Σχετικές Αναρτήσεις
- Ersal-Kiziler, Eylem, Nguyen, Ha., (2016), “Euro Currency Risk and the Geography of Debt Flows to Peripheral European Monetary Union Members”, Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7338. World Bank, Ιούνιος
- Veld, Jan in ‘t, (2016), “Public Investment Stimulus in Surplus Countries and their Euro Area Spillovers”, European Commission, Economic Brief 016, Αύγουστος