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The retirement-consumption puzzle: New evidence from personal finances

Arna Olafsson, Michaela Pagel, (2018), “The retirement-consumption puzzle: New evidence from personal finances”, VoxEU, 7 Ιουνίου

A large academic literature in economics analyses changes in household consumption upon retirement. After all, household consumption is the most important part of aggregate demand and the increase in the share of the workforce that will be approaching or past retirement age in the coming years puts this topic at centerstage for both policymakers and researchers. This literature asks whether households plan properly and save enough to have roughly the same level of consumption after as before their retirement. Retirement is arguably among the most predictable and important income changes individuals encounter in their lives, and consumption should not be affected by its onset if households plan properly and save enough. However, a number of empirical studies (e.g. Banks et al. 1998, Bernheim et al. 2001, Haider and Stephens 2007 and Schwerdt 2005) found a sharp decline in consumption during the first years of retirement, a phenomenon referred to as the ‘retirement-consumption puzzle’. It is puzzling to economists why households do not plan properly and save enough for an expected fall in income.

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