Darvas, Z. & Pia Hüttl, P. (2014) “Despite lower yields, euro-periphery is not yet out of the woods – while the public debt ratio is expected to fall, the debt trajectory remains highly vulnerable to negative growth, primary balance and interest rate shocks“, Working Paper – European Macroeconomics, Bruegel Association, 18 Ιουνίου. Following Ireland, Portugal has also exited its financial assistance programme in a clean way, namely without any …Read More
Why DSGEs crash during crises
Hendry, F. D., Mizon, E. G. (2014) “Why DSGEs crash during crises“, VoxEU Organisation, 18 Ιουνίου. Many central banks rely on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models – known as DSGEs to cognoscenti. This column – which is more technical than most Vox columns – argues that the models’ mathematical basis fails when crises shift the underlying distributions of shocks. Specifically, the linchpin ‘law of iterated expectations’ fails, so economic …Read More
Digital Government: Turning the Rhetoric into Reality
Carrasco, M. & Goss, P. (2014) “Digital Government: Turning the Rhetoric into Reality“, Boston Consulting Group (BCG), Ιούνιος. Getting better—but still plenty of room for improvement: that’s the current assessment by everyday users of their governments’ efforts to deliver online services. The public sector has made good progress, but most countries are not moving nearly as quickly as users would like. Many governments have made bold commitments, and a …Read More
The long haul: debt sustainability analysis
Darvas, Z. & Hüttl, P. (2014) “The long haul: debt sustainability analysis“, Working Paper – European Macroeconomics, Bruegel Association, 18 Ιουνίου. This working paper details and updates the debt sustainability analysis of Darvas, Sapir and Wolff (2014) for Greece, Ireland and Portugal. The goal is not the calculation of a baseline scenario which best corresponds to our views, but to set-up a baseline scenario which broadly corresponds to official …Read More
Labour Mobility in the EU: Dynamics, Patterns and Policies
Barslund et al. (2014) “Labour Mobility in the EU: Dynamics, Patterns and Policies“, INTERECONOMICS, Vol 49, No. 3· May/ June 2014. The continued economic crisis has become a major test for the labour markets of individual member states. Labour mobility within the European Union has the potential to help to reduce labour market pressures and ease economic imbalances. However, a long-term loss of working age population can be detrimental …Read More
Should the Euro Area Be Concerned About Deflation?
Illing, G. (2014) “Should the Euro Area Be Concerned About Deflation?“, INTERECONOMICS, Vol 49, No. 3· Μάιος/ Ιούνιος 2014. During the past few years, headline inflation (the change in the harmonised consumer price index, HCPI) in the euro area has fallen steadily, from three per cent at the end of 2011 to 0.7 per cent in April 2014. It is now far below the ECB’s target rate of inflation …Read More
The Euro Area Crisis: Politics Over Economics
Orphanides, A. (2014) “The Euro Area Crisis: Politics Over Economics“, MIT Sloan Research Paper No. 5091-14, 10 Iουνίου. This paper explores the dominant role of politics in decisions made by euro area governments during the crisis. Decisions that appear to have been driven by local political considerations to the detriment of the euro area as a whole are discussed. The domination of politics over economics has led to crisis …Read More
Οι Πολιτικές που Χρηματοδοτούνται από τον Κοινοτικό Προϋπολογισμό και κ Ελληνική Οικονομία–Τελική Έκθεση: Δεκέμβριος 2013-Μάρτιος 2014
Ελληνικό Ίδρυμα Ευρωπαϊκής και Εξωτερικής Πολιτικής (2014) “Οι Πολιτικές που Χρηματοδοτούνται από τον Κοινοτικό Προϋπολογισμό και η Ελληνική Οικονομία – Τελική Έκθεση: Δεκέμβριος 2013-Μάρτιος 2014“, Μελέτη κατ’ ανάθεση από την Τράπεζα της Ελλάδος, Διεύθυνση: Αχιλλέας Μητσός, Αθήνα: Απρίλιος. Η ΜΕΛΕΤΗ Η Τράπεζα της Ελλάδος ανέθεσε τον Απρίλιο του 2010 στο ΕΛΙΑΜΕΠ την εκπόνηση μελέτης με θέμα την “αξιολόγηση των επιδράσεων που έχουν ασκήσει και θα ασκήσουν στην πορεία της ελληνικής …Read More
The ill-advised rigidity of the 2% inflation target
Stegeman, H. (2014) “The ill-advised rigidity of the 2% inflation target“, Pieria Network, 16 Ιουνίου. Our macroeconomic policy is largely based on the theory mainly developed in the post-war years, and more particularly at the time of the Great Moderation. This was the period of steady, reasonably predictable economic growth from the beginning of the 1980s until the crisis of 2007/2008 and the subsequent Great Recession. As a result …Read More
Monthly Bulletin
European Central Bank (2014) “Monthly Bulletin“, ECB Eurosystem, Ιούνιος. ECONOMIC AND MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS 1 THE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT OF THE EURO AREA The global economy remains on a gradual recovery path, although the growth momentum moderated somewhat in the first quarter of 2014 as a result of temporary factors mainly affecting the United States and China. As the adverse effects of these factors are gradually waning, global activity should gather …Read More