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George Tzogopoulos: German Elections

As attention is directed towards the German elections of the 22nd of September, the question of whether Berlin is going to change its policy the next day of the elections, concerns Brussels, as well as the countries of the European South. European affairs – with the exception of some remarks for the case of Greece and the cost of the rescue packages – did not receive much attention in the election campaigns of political parties, but will possibly be a priority during the next months. This, however, does not mean that we should expect dramatic changes, despite the expectations cultivated by the media.

Based on the polls, the prevalence of Christian-Democrats can be taken for granted, who, however, won’t be able to form a government on their own. There are, thus, four scenarios for the next government coalition. The most extreme that concentrates though significant probabilities, is based on the formation of a centre-left government – without the participation of Chancellor Merkel – with the cooperation of Social-Democrats, Greens and the Left Party. According to the most orthodox scenarios, however, Chancellor Angela Merkel will remain at the position for a third consecutive time.  The Christian-Democrat party will be required to collaborate either with the Liberals, if they succeed in passing the threshold of 5%, or the Social-Democrats, creating a large coalition like that of 2005-2009. Theoretically, she could do the same with the Greens, although the latter rule out this possibility in any available occasion.

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