Ruparel, Raoul, (2015), “What will shock Greek referendum mean for the Eurozone and Greece?”, Open Europe blog, 27 June
It is hard to see many positive outcomes from here. No matter what, capital controls and bank holidays will likely be needed in the short term (and possibly longer) in Greece. Even if the referendum gives a positive outcome, this may still provoke uncertainty. It is not clear whether the deal to be voted on is actually still on the table. Furthermore, Tsipras has set himself up to reject the proposal, so it might be hard to avoid new elections if the people back the creditors. If there is a ‘No’ vote, this is likely to be seen as a vote for Grexit, since any offer on the table from creditors will be a ‘take it or leave it’ one. There remains a small chance that the referendum may not come to pass, if a new deal is offered or the bill is not approved by the Greek Parliament or President. However, given Tsipras’s insistence on the referendum, it would again be hard for him to survive such an event.
Relevant Posts
- Cowen, Tyler, (2015), “Would there (will there?) be contagion from Grexit?”, Marginal Revolution, 29 June
- Wyplosz, Charles, (2015), “Grexit: The staggering cost of central bank dependence”, Voxeu, 29 June