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Greece: 2017 Economic Outlook

Monokroussos , Platon, (2017), "Greece: 2017 Economic Outlook", Eurobank, 1 March Greece’s real GDP came in at -0.4% QoQ / +0.3% YoY in Q4-16 (quarterly national accounts, flash estimate), interrupting two consecutive quarters of positive QoQ growth (Q3: 0.9%; Q2: 0.3%). For the full-year, real output grew by 0.3%, broadly in line with our earlier forecast and compared with a -0.3% projection penciled in the 2017 budget. This translates into …Read More

Greece Edges Toward Another Crisis as Bailout Quarrel Persists

Chrysoloras, Nikos, Wishart, Ian, Nikas, Sotiris, (2017), "Greece Edges Toward Another Crisis as Bailout Quarrel Persists", Bloomberg, 20 March Euro-area finance ministers meeting in Brussels on Monday will reiterate that the government of Alexis Tsipras has yet to comply with the terms attached to the emergency loans that have kept the country afloat since 2010. While Tsipras had promised the long delayed review of the latest bailout would be completed …Read More

Greece Leads Euro Area in Share Spent on Old-Age Pensions: Chart

Salzano, Giovanni, (2017), "Greece Leads Euro Area in Share Spent on Old-Age Pensions: Chart", Bloomberg Markets, 15 March Greece spends 13.3 percent of its gross domestic product on old-age pensions, the highest proportion in the euro area. The issue of pension cuts has become a major point of contention between Athens and its international bailout auditors. Relevant Posts Nektarios, Milton, Tinios, Platon, Simeonidis, George, (2017), "A pension system for younger …Read More

What conspiracy theories can tell us about politics in Greece

Papazoglou, Alexis, (2017), "What conspiracy theories can tell us about politics in Greece", EUROPP, 7 March A couple of weeks ago, I attended a talk on conspiracy theories. Hugo Drochon, a post-doc for the Conspiracy and Democracy project at the University of Cambridge, presented the results of a YouGov poll on questions dealing with the extent to which people held conspiracy theory-like beliefs. The findings showed that conspiracy theories are …Read More

Sovereign Rating Model: Greek Sovereign Rating Worse Than We Deserve

Lekkos, Ilias, Rotsika, Dimitria, Giannakidis, Haris, (2017), "Sovereign Rating Model: Greek Sovereign Rating Worse Than We Deserve", Piraeus Bank Economic Research and Investment Strategy, February The profound effect of sovereign credit ratings on economic activity is all too well known in the case of Greece, where the downgrade of the Hellenic Republic to below investment grade led to the “financial isolation” of the Greek state from the global financial system. …Read More

Should we worry about Greek banks?

Merler, Silvia, (2017), "Should we worry about Greek banks?", Bruegel, 23 February Earlier this month, the IMF and the European institutions clashed over conditions for sustainability of the Greek debt. One of the main disagreements seems to be the evaluation of the Greek banks’ health. Whose assessment should be trusted and are there reasons to worry? Relevant Posts Onado, Marco, (2017), "In search of a European solution for banks’ non-performing loans", VoxEu, …Read More

Contrasting the views of the EU Institutions and the IMF staff on the outlook of Greek economy and the present bailout programme

Monokroussos, Platon, (2017), "Contrasting the views of the EU Institutions and the IMF staff on the outlook of Greek economy and the present bailout programme", Eurobank, February The study presented herein has been motivated by the ongoing negotiations between the Greek government and the Institutions (EC/ECB/IMF/ESM) in the context of the 2nd review of Greece’s present bailout programme. It attempts to analyze important deviations and similarities in the views presented …Read More

When the IMF evaluates the IMF

Wyplosz, Charles, (2017), "When the IMF evaluates the IMF", VoxEu, 17 February The IMF has just released its self-evaluation of its Greek lending, in which it admits to many mistakes. This column and argues that the report misses one important error – reliance on the Debt Sustainability Analysis – but notes that the IMF’s candour should be a model for the other participants in the lending, namely, the European Commission and …Read More

Greek Glass Half-Full: The CJEU And Europe’s ‘Highly Competitive Social Market’ Economy

Countouris, Nicola, Koukiadaki, Aristea, (2017), "Greek Glass Half-Full: The CJEU And Europe’s ‘Highly Competitive Social Market’ Economy", Social Europe, 13 February  The case, which was referred to the CJEU by the Greek Council of State (Supreme Administrative Court), concerned the question of whether the powers of the Minister for Labour to refuse planned collective redundancies under certain circumstances are compatible with EU Law. The reluctance of Greece to abolish this restriction …Read More

Overview of the Greek Financial System

Bank of Greece, (2017), "Overview of the Greek Financial System", January During 2016, the financial system’s principal risks seem to have stabilised, while the medium-term prospects will mainly depend on creating an environment favouring economic growth. However, there are still significant challenges, both in the domestic front, due to potential delays in the completion of the second review of the Third Economic Adjustment Programme for Greece, and structural factors (e.g. high …Read More

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