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Commission recommends closing Excessive Deficit Procedure for Greece

European Commission, “Commission recommends closing Excessive Deficit Procedure for Greece”, Press Release, 12 July 2017 The Commission has decided to recommend to the Council to close the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) for Greece. This follows the substantial efforts in recent years made by the country to consolidate its public finances coupled with the progress made in the implementation of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) support programme for Greece. Relevant Posts …Read More

State financing needs and sources in 2017 and beyond; evaluation of the agreed short-term debt relief measures & updated DSA

Monokroussos, Platon, (2017), “State financing needs and sources in 2017 and beyond; evaluation of the agreed short-term debt relief measures & updated DSA”, Eurobank Research, January This study constitutes an update of a Eurobank Research piece titled “Greece Evaluation of the agreed short-term relief measures & updated sustainability analysis of Greek public debt” that was published in December 2016. It provides a detailed analysis of Greece’s projected public borrowing needs …Read More

The Case for Making the Greek Budget More Growth Friendly

M. Thomsen, Poul, (2016), “The Case for Making the Greek Budget More Growth Friendly”, IMF, 12 December The overriding objective of the IMF’s engagement with Greece is to help the country put itself back on a path of sustainable growth that benefits the Greek people. In this regard, we think that the current structure of the Greek budget is a serious constraint on growth. Below we provide a more detailed explanation …Read More

The IMF is not asking Greece for more austerity

Obstfeld, Maurice, M. Thomsen, Poul, (2016), “The IMF is not asking Greece for more austerity”, IMF direct, 12 December Greece is once again in the headlines as discussions for the second review of its European Stability Mechanism (ESM) program are gaining pace. Unfortunately, the discussions have also spurred some misinformation about the role and the views of the IMF. Above all, the IMF is being criticized for demanding more fiscal …Read More

The time is up! A realistic proposal to end Greece’s debt overhang

Marsh, Chris, Nagly, Dominik, Pagoulatos, George, Papaioannou, Elias, (2016), “The time is up! A realistic proposal to end Greece’s debt overhang”, VoxEu, 17 November It is now seven years since the Greek crisis began. As well as reflecting the chronic deficiencies of its own institutions, the failings in Greece also reflect substantial shortcomings in international institutions. This column argues that it is time for all sides to move on, and proposes …Read More

QE for Greece: a necessary precondition for stabilizing investor sentiment and preventing the need for further official sector financing post-2018

Monokroussos, Platon, (2016), “QE for Greece: a necessary precondition for stabilizing investor sentiment and preventing the need for further official sector financing post-2018”, Eurobank, 25 October Taking into consideration the most recent comments by a number of key EU officials on Greece’s possible inclusion in the ECB’s quantitative easing (QE) program this note updates our recent analysis on the issue, focusing on the key preconditions for and the potential timeline …Read More

The Road to Recovery: Are Greek banks able to finance Greece’s economic recovery?

Karamouzis, Nikolaos, (2016), “The Road to Recovery: Are Greek banks able to finance Greece’s economic recovery?”, Eurobank Research, 22 September The question dominating the public dialogue in Greece these days is whether the conditions are in place for the economy to return to a path of strong and sustainable economic growth. A year after the country signed its third Adjustment Programme with European partners, many wonder whether the steady and …Read More

Greece: Getting Out of the Recession

Papadimitriou, Dimitri B., Nikiforos, Michalis, Zezza, Gennaro, (2016), “Greece: Getting Out of the Recession”, Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, September The Greek government has agreed to a new round of fiscal austerity measures consisting of a sharp increase in taxes on income and property and further reductions in pension and other welfare-related expenditures. Based on our model of the Greek economy, policies aimed at reducing the government deficit will cause a recession, …Read More

The Analytics of the Greek Crisis

Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, Philippon, Thomas, Vayanos, Dimitri, (2016), “The Analytics of the Greek Crisis”, Centre for Economic Policy Research, June We provide an empirical and theoretical analysis of the Greek Crisis of 2010. We first benchmark the crisis against all episodes of sudden stops, sovereign debt crises, and lending boom/busts in emerging and advanced economies since 1980. The decline in Greece’s output, especially investment, is deeper and more persistent than in almost any …Read More

The Greek Pension Tragedy: A case of failure in Governance

Tinios, Platon, (2016),  “The Greek Pension Tragedy: A case of failure in Governance”, Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, 14 April The Greek pension system is one of the least successful in the world. Without providing income security at old age, it, nevertheless, hastened bankruptcy in 2010; six years later, pensions are about to derail the third successive bailout. The usual explanation splits the period in two: Failure up to 2010 was due to …Read More

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