Boot, Nuria, Veugelers, Reinhilde, (2016), “Can mass migration boost innovation and productivity?”, Bruegel publications, 10 February The long-term impact of migration on innovation and productivity growth in host countries is a neglected issue in the current debate on refugees. Research shows that these effects can be substantial, but if Europe wants to capitalize on this potential it will need better information systems to match migrants’ skill sets with host environments. …Read More

Huttl, Pia, Schoenmaker, Dirk, (2016), “Should the ‘outs’ join the European banking union?”, Bruegel publications, 4 February This paper analyses the banking linkages between the nine ‘outs’ and 19 ‘ins’ of the banking union. It finds that the out countries could profit from joining banking union, because it would provide a stable arrangement for managing financial stability. Relevant Posts Gros, Daniel, Belke, Ansgar, (2015), “Banking Union as a Shock Absorber: …Read More

Langfield, Sam, Pagano, Marco, (2016), “Financial structure and growth revisited”, Voxeu, 1 February Why is growth in Europe so low? Among the contributing factors, this column highlights the role of financial structure. Intermediation in Europe is heavily bank-based, and the authors’ novel empirical findings indicate that such a structure exerts a negative effect on long-run economic growth and exacerbates its response to sharp drops in real estate prices. The findings support policymakers’ efforts to rebalance …Read More

Di Mauro, Filippo, Nagengast, Arne, Stehrer, Robert, (2016), “On the correction of Eurozone external imbalances and the pitfalls of bilateral imbalance measures”, Voxeu, 29 January Now the worst of the Eurozone Crisis has passed, one question that emerges is whether improving current account balances should be an objective for policymakers. And if so, what tools are available? This column argues that because of the emergence of global value chains, trade imbalances within the Eurozone …Read More

Guerguil, Martine, Mandon, Pierre, Tapsoba, Rene, (2016), ” Flexible Fiscal Rules and Countercyclical Fiscal Policy”, IMF Working Paper No. 16/8, 22 January We are very grateful to Jean-Louis Combes and Alexandru Minea for their valuable comments and suggestions. The paper also benefited from useful discussions and comments from Vitor Gaspar, Abdelhak Senhadji, Paulo Medas, Marialuz Moreno Badia, Xavier Debrun, Mousse Sow, Sampawende Tapsoba, Dell’Erba Salvatore, Tigran Poghosyan, Estelle Liu, and participants at the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department …Read More

Merler, Sylvia, (2016), “Bad banks and rude awakenings: Italian banks at a crossroads”, Bruegel publications, 26 January Taking a step back, it is important to understand what could be behind the sudden change in market sentiment. Borrowing a literary expression, this is to some extent the chronicle of a death foretold. Italian banks have been very resilient to the first wave of financial crisis in 2008, due to the low …Read More

Emerson, Michael, (2016), “2016 already puts its mark on the economic map of Europe”, Ceps publications, 8 January The start of 2016 brought highly symbolic changes to the trade policy map of Europe between the EU- and Russian-led blocs, as the EU’s Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) with Ukraine entered into force provisionally, while Russia moved in precisely the opposite direction by scrapping its free trade agreement with …Read More

Merler, Sylvia, (2016), “A financial side to a macroeconomic story: macro imbalances and financial integration in the euro area”, Bruegel publications, 18 January In a recent paper, I looked at the evolution of financial cycles in the euro area and at their link with capital flows. Here, I focus on how those findings inform our understanding of euro-area macroeconomic imbalances, revisiting the analysis of national savings and investment correlation. Relevant …Read More