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Unemployment Rate in Greece: “The” Long Run Macroeconomic Challenge

Gogos, S. & Kosma, O. (2014) “Unemployment Rate in Greece: “The” Long Run Macroeconomic Challenge“, Eurobank Research Team, Economy and Markets, Vol. IX, Issue 6, June.   Following six years of a severe economic recession, it has become a common belief among economists and policymakers that “The” macroeconomic challenge for the Greek economy over the next 10 years (or more) will be the return of the unemployment rate to acceptable …Read More

DG ECFIN And The Missing Greek Exports

Janssen, Ρ. (2014) “DG ECFIN And The Missing Greek Exports“, Social Europe Journal, 02 July.   Economists at DG ECFIN are starting to notice something we have pointed out already some time ago: Despite an enormous cut in wage costs, Greek exports have firmly stayed put in recessionary territory and hopes for an export-led recovery have proven to be illusive. Troubled by this failure of Greek exports to lift off, DG …Read More

Η Ελληνική Οικονομία

ELSTAT (2014) “The Greek Economy“, Hellenic Statistical Authority, 27 June. The Greek Economy ppublication aims to provide the latest key economic information on Greece in a clear and comprehensive manner. Written in both the Greek and English languages, it is designed for users of statistics who seek updated information on recent economic developments, as well as long-term economic trends. It provides information on major economic indicators and time series compiled …Read More

Full coverage of projected financing gap possible up to at least 2020, without recourse to a new aid package from official lender

Monokroussos, P. (2014) “Full coverage of projected financing gap possible up to at least 2020, without recourse to a new aid package from official lender“, Greece Macro Monitor, Eurobank Global Markets Research, 18 June.   In their latest reviews of Greece’s economic adjustment programs, both the European Commission and the IMF project a financing gap in the general government accounts to arise in the second semester of next year, amounting …Read More

European Economy: The Puzzle of the Missing Greek Exports

Böwer, U., Michou, V. & Ungerer, C. (2014) “European Economy: The Puzzle of the Missing Greek Exports“, Economic Papers 518, European Commission, June 2014.   Why is Greece such a surprisingly closed economy? We employ a gravity model of trade to explain the appallingly poor export performance of Greece and argue that weak institutional quality accounts for a large part of this shortfall. Using a rich dataset of bilateral value-added …Read More

Greece Taps The Market

Horne, J. P. (2014) “Greece Taps The Market“, The European Institute.   The Greek government borrowed on the international bond market last week, the first time in over four years.[1] The bond issue comes just five years after Greece’s severe economic and financial crisis had become an existential threat to the euro itself. The fact that Greece was able to borrow €3 billion for five years at 4.75%, with orders …Read More

Is Deflation a Risk for Greece?

Anastasatos, T. & Stamatiou, T. (2014) “Is Deflation a Risk for Greece?,  Economy and Markets, Eurobank Research, Vol. IX, Issue 3, April.   Deflation is the occurrence of negative inflation, i.e. the situation in which prices of goods and services are falling in an economy. By contrast, disinflation is a slow-down in the inflation rate. In technical terms, deflation is considered to have occurred when CPI or the GDP deflator …Read More

Fiscal multiplier, automatic stabilizers and public debt: A simulation exercise for Greece

Monokroussos, P. (2014) “Fiscal multiplier, automatic stabilizers and public debt: A simulation exercise for Greece“, Greece Macro Monitor, Eurobank Global Markets Research, 12 May.   While a vast volume of theoretical and empirical work exists on the effects of fiscal policy on economic activity, the feedback effect from growth to fiscal aggregates, and in particular to government debt, has received less attention. This issue is becoming increasingly important in this …Read More

Portugal and Greece: the odd return to markets

Steinbock, D. (2014) “Portugal and Greece: the odd return to markets“, Opinion Article, EU Observer, 05 May.   BRUSSELS – In the past few weeks, Portugal and Greece have returned to the markets in moves seen in Brussels as heralding a rebound in Southern Europe. In reality, a fragile recovery has barely begun and will take years. On Sunday (4 May), Portugal’s Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho announced that his …Read More

This could be the moment for Greece to default

Münchau, W. (2014) “This could be the moment for Greece to default”, Financial Times, 13 April.   While the financial world is celebrating the Greek return to the bond markets, I am asking myself this question: is this a good time for Greece to default on its foreign debt? It is not a subject of polite conversion in Brussels or Athens. Nor does it appear to be a popular subject …Read More