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Greece: update on public finances – the State primary budget balance has returned almost in line with the target, but mostly due to expenditure cuts. Revenues continue to underperform

Merler, S. (2015) “Greece: update on public finances – the State primary budget balance has returned almost in line with the target, but mostly due to expenditure cuts. Revenues continue to underperform“, Bruegel Institute, 16 March.   At the end of last week the Greek Finance Ministry published the preliminary budget execution bulletin for February. The State primary budget balance has returned almost in line with the target, but mostly …Read More

The Political Economy of the Greek Debt Crisis: A Tale of Two Bailouts

Ardagna, S. & Caselli, F. (2015) “The Political Economy of the Greek Debt Crisis: A Tale of Two Bailouts“, Centre for Economic Performance Special Paper, Special Paper No. 25, January 2014.   We review the events that led to the May 2010 and July 2011 bailout agreements. We interpret the bailouts as outcomes of political-economy equilibria. We argue that these equilibria were likely not on the Pareto frontier, and sketch …Read More

Sovereign default and debt restructuring: Was Argentina’s ‘haircut’ excessive?

Edwards, S. (2015) “Sovereign default and debt restructuring: Was Argentina’s ‘haircut’ excessive?“, VoxEU Organisation, 04 March.   There were 24 sovereign defaults and debt restructurings between 1997 and 2013. Using data on 180 debt restructurings – for both sovereign bonds and sovereign syndicated bank loans – this column argues that the roughly 75% ‘haircut’ Argentina imposed on its creditors in 2005 was an outlier. Greece’s ‘haircut’ of roughly 64% in …Read More

Greece and primary surpluses

Wren-Lewis, S. (2015) “Greece and primary surpluses“, Mainly Macro Blog, 24 February.   In my simple guide to the current macroeconomic position of Greece, I said that a major mistake made by the Troika was to insist on a pace of fiscal adjustment that was far too fast. It led to a collapse in the economy. Of course a collapse in the economy itself raises the deficit. So people who …Read More

Greece – a Varoufakis Conversion

Cook, C. (2015) “Greece – a Varoufakis Conversion“, Pieria Online, 06 February.   Greece’s new Syriza government has two major economic challenges to address: a Resolution of Greece’s unsustainable debt burden followed by a Transition to a long term sustainable economy. Conventional resolution of sovereign debt is a debt for debt swap: replacing existing debt with new debt which requires a smaller percentage of Greece’s national income and resources to …Read More

Is Greek Public Debt Unsustainable? It’s The (nominal growth rate of the) Economy, Stupid!

Watt, A. (2015) “Is Greek Public Debt Unsustainable? It’s The (nominal growth rate of the) Economy, Stupid!“, Social Europe Journal, Occasional Papers No. 6, January.   Greece will go to the polls on January 25th and everybody from German conservatives to Greek leftists seems to agree: Greek public debt is unsustainable. A haircut on investors and some form of partial default – more politely known as debt restructuring – is …Read More

Why Grexit would not help Greece – debunking the myth of exports

Wolff, Β. G. (2015) “Why Grexit would not help Greece – debunking the myth of exports“, Bruegel Institute, 06 January.   The genie is out of the bottle: Europe is again discussing the possibility of Greece leaving the euro. With it, the debate has re-emerged whether this would be helpful or not for Greece and whether there would be contagion to other euro area countries. A big question is, of …Read More

The Greek Turnaround: Mending the Fragility and at What Price

Panagiotarea, E. (2014) “The Greek Turnaround: Mending the Fragility and at What Price“, in: Europe – Surging Ahead, Panorama – Insights into Asian and European Affairs, 02/2014, σσ. 59-70, 19 December.   Introduction Greek economic adjustment was never going to be an easy task. For one, the starting imbalances were grave, hidden from view by years of budgetary misreporting and rudimentary surveillance, while the country’s institutional capacity to undertake and …Read More

Greece – return to growth demonstrates the role of substantial fiscal deficits

Mitchell, B. (2014) “Greece – return to growth demonstrates the role of substantial fiscal deficits“, Bill Mitchell Blog: Modern Macroeconomic Theory – Macroeconomic Reality, 19 November.   We had news this week that the annual rate of real GDP growth in Greece is finally positive after two quarters of positive growth. The austerity merchants are out in force congratulating themselves on a victory. Some victory. What the official data doesn’t …Read More

Lower levels of clientelism in Portuguese politics explain why Portugal handled austerity better than Greece during the crisis

Afonso, A., Zartaloudis, S. & Papadopoulos, Y. (2014) “Lower levels of clientelism in Portuguese politics explain why Portugal handled austerity better than Greece during the crisis“, LSE EUROPP, 27 October.   Greece and Portugal were two of the worst hit countries by the Eurozone crisis, yet the domestic political reaction within each state was notably different. While in Greece there were difficulties agreeing to austerity policies and the party system …Read More