O’Neill, J. (2014) “A Crazy Idea About Italy“, Bloomberg View, 05 Νοεμβρίου.
I’ve spent a good deal of my 35 years as an economic and financial analyst puzzling over Italy. Studying its economy was my first assignment in this business — as a matter of fact, Italy was the first foreign country I ever flew to. I’m just back from a vacation in Puglia and Basilicata. Over the decades, the question has never really changed: How can such a wonderful country find it such a perpetual struggle to succeed?
All the while, Italy has pitted weak government against a remarkably adaptable private sector and a particular prowess in small-scale manufacturing. An optimist by nature, I’ve generally believed these strengths would prevail and Italy would prosper regardless. In the days before Europe’s economic and monetary union, though, it had one kind of flexibility it now lacks: a currency, which it could occasionally devalue. These periodic injections of stronger competitiveness were a great help to Fiat and other big exporters, and to smaller companies too.
The rest of Europe had mixed feelings about this readiness to restore competitiveness through devaluation — meaning at their expense. When discussions began about locking Europe’s exchange rates and moving to a single currency, opinions divided among the other partners, notably Germany and France, on what would be in their own best interests. Many German conservatives, including some at the Bundesbank, doubted Italy’s commitment to low inflation, which they wanted to enshrine as Europe’s chief monetary goal. On the other hand, leaving Italy outside the euro would leave their own competitiveness vulnerable to occasional lira devaluations.
Σχετικές αναρτήσεις:
- Mazzolini, G. & Mody, A. (2014) “Austerity Tales: the Netherlands and Italy“, Bruegel Think Tank, 03 Οκτωβρίου.
- Orsi, R. (2014) “Why Italy Will Not Make It“, LSE EUROPP, Eurocrisis in the Press, 01 Οκτωβρίου.
- Mody, Α. & Riley, Ε. (2014) “Why does Italy not grow? – The Italian economy has barely grown since it joined the euro area in 1999“, Bruegel Institute, 09 Σεπτεμβρίου.