Jarocinski, Marek, Lenza, Michele, (2016), “How large is the output gap in the euro area”, European Central Bank, 1 Ιουλίου
The estimates of the output gap depend on the features of the models used to derive them. We discriminate among different estimates on the basis of their ability to forecast inflation. Our analysis suggests that output in the euro area was 6% lower than potential in 2014 and 2015, which is substantially below institutional estimates.
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