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Economic Bulletin

European Central Bank, (2017), “Economic Bulletin”, Issue 3, Μάιος

The ECB’s monetary policy measures have continued to preserve the very favourable financing conditions that are necessary to secure a sustained convergence of inflation rates towards levels below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. Incoming data since the Governing Council’s meeting in early March confirm that the cyclical recovery of the euro area economy is becoming increasingly solid and that downside risks have further diminished.1 At the same time, underlying inflation pressures continue to remain subdued and have yet to show a convincing upward trend. Moreover, the ongoing volatility in headline inflation underlines the need to look through transient developments in HICP inflation, which have no implication for the medium-term outlook for price stability. Available indicators point to sustained global growth at the beginning of 2017, while the recovery in international trade has continued. The global recovery is broadening, with the improvement in growth being widespread across countries. International financial conditions have remained overall supportive, despite significant policy uncertainty. Global headline inflation has increased further, mainly driven by energy prices. However, oil prices have recently undergone some volatility.

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