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The Italian Budget: A Case of Contractionary Fiscal Expansion?

Blanchard O., Zettelmeyer J, (2018), “The Italian Budget: A Case of Contractionary Fiscal Expansion?”, Peterson Institute for International Economics, 25 Οκτωβρίου

Ιtaly’s government is in a standoff with the European Commission over its first budget proposal. Rather than reducing the public deficit, as the previous government had promised, the new government plans to increase it significantly. Because Italy’s debt is very high—over 130 percent of GDP—the proposed budget violates EU fiscal rules. The European Commission has announced that the proposal is not acceptable, while the government has in turn stood firm. Pundits and markets are now focused on how this confrontation might evolve.

But there is an equally important question, namely, whether the proposed budget would in fact boost Italian output, as the government hopes and counts on. We fear not. In fact, the proposed policies are more likely to achieve the opposite.

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