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Brexit deal done – now for the hard part

John Springford, (2018), “Brexit deal done – now for the hard part”Centre for European Reform, 15 Νοεμβρίου

Theresa May’s Brexit deal offers some crumbs to Tory hardliners, the DUP and soft Brexiteers. But if the deal passes through parliament, a UK-EU customs union is likely.

In the knowledge that no deal was not an option, Theresa May has agreed a withdrawal deal that is on the EU’s terms, but gives a little something for various factions in parliament. However, it is far from clear whether it will be enough to satisfy them. The woolly political declaration points towards a single market exit, with talk of a “free trade area”, and financial services trade being governed by unilateral equivalence decisions rather than joint rules. That is the result of her – and her country’s – desire to end free movement, and the Tory right’s distaste being subject to EU laws.

The withdrawal agreement includes most of the EU’s Northern Ireland protocol from March, which she had rejected, saying that no prime minister would ever sign up to it. But it is complemented by a customs union for the whole UK and EU. That customs union would prevent the tariff and quota checks for goods crossing the Irish Sea, in the hope that the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) will support the deal.

A customs backstop might also pose some problems for Labour – since it is their policy to negotiate one if they form a government, and journalists will ask why they will reject a deal in parliament that includes one.

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