Mario Alloza, Bogdan Cozmanca, Marien Ferdinandusse and Pascal Jacquinot, (2019) “Fiscal spillovers in a monetary union”, ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1/2019, 6 Φεβρουαρίου
The article describes the main transmission channels of the spillovers of national fiscal policies to other countries within a monetary union and investigates their magnitude using different models. In the context of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), fiscal spillovers are relevant for the accurate assessment of the cyclical outlook in euro area countries, as well as in the debates on a coordinated change in the euro area fiscal stance and on euro area fiscal capacity. The article focuses on spillovers from expenditure-based expansions in the larger euro area countries by presenting two complementary exercises. The first is an empirical investigation of spillovers based on a new, long dataset for the largest euro area countries, while the second uses a multi-country general equilibrium model with a rich fiscal specification and the capacity to analyse trade spillovers. Fiscal spillovers are found to be heterogeneous but generally positive among the larger euro area countries. The reaction of interest rates to fiscal expansion is an important determinant for the magnitude of spillovers.
Σχετικές Αναρτήσεις
- Era Dabla-Norris, Pietro Dallari, Tigran Poghosyan, (2017), «Fiscal Spillovers in the Euro Area: Letting the Data Speak», IMF Working Paper No. 17/241, 15 Νοεμβρίου
- Attinasi, Maria-Grazia , Lalik, Magdalena, Vetlov, Igor, (2017), «Fiscal spillovers in the euro area a model-based analysis», European Central Bank, No 2040, Μάρτιος 2017