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Understanding past and future financial crises

Olivier Gourinchas, Pierre, Obstfeld, Maurice, (2015), “Understanding past and future financial crises”, Voxeu, 21 July

What explains the different effects of the crisis around the world? This column compares the 2007–09 crisis to earlier episodes of banking, currency, and sovereign debt distress and identifies domestic-credit booms and real currency appreciation as the most significant predictors of future crises, in both advanced and emerging economies. It argues these results could help policymakers determine the need for corrective action before crises hit.

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