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ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area

ECB, (2019), “ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area”, March

Real GDP growth remained unexpectedly sluggish in the fourth quarter of 2018, and recent indicators point to substantially weaker than previously expected activity also in the first half of 2019. While some temporary factors are likely to have contributed to the slowdown in activity in late 2018, the broad-based worsening of economic sentiment indicators across countries and sectors in recent months suggests that more persistent adverse factors have also been at play and that the underlying cyclical momentum is somewhat weaker than previously assessed. In the shorter term, a combination of global uncertainties (such as threats of an escalation of protectionist measures and the possibility of a disorderly Brexit) as well as adverse domestic factors in some euro area countries are likely to continue to weigh on euro area activity. Thereafter, the baseline assumes that these domestic and global headwinds gradually fade out and that the fundamental factors supporting the euro area expansion remain broadly in place.

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