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The impact of population ageing on monetary policy

Marcin Bielecki, Michal Brzoza-Brzezina and Marcin Kolasa, (2019), “The impact of population ageing on monetary policy”, VoxEU, 5 March

Population ageing is likely to affect many areas of life, from pension system sustainability to housing markets. This column shows that monetary policy can be considered another victim. Low fertility rates and increasing life expectancy substantially lower the natural rate of interest. As a consequence, central banks are more likely to hit the lower bound constraint on the nominal interest rate and face long periods of low inflation, especially if they fail to account for the impact of demographic trends on the natural interest rate in real time.

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