Catarina Midoes and Guntram B. Wolff, (2019), “Germany’s even larger than expected fiscal surpluses: Is there a link with the constitutional debt brake?”, Bruegel, 13 May
Germany is having a political debate on the adjustment of its budgetary plans due to revised forecasts, and an academic debate on the debt brake. Yet, since 2011, general government revenues and surpluses have been systematically and significantly higher than forecast. The German surplus reached 1.7% of GDP in 2018. This bias did not exist from 1999-2008 before the introduction of the debt brake. While the IMF also got its forecasts of German surpluses wrong, the extent of the bias is larger for the German government’s forecasts. These data suggest that the political debate should focus on the debt brake and its implementation rather than on how to close the budgetary ‘hole’.
- Alvaro Leandro and Jeromin Zettelmeyer, (2019), «Ηow Worrying Is the Recent Downgrading of German Growth Forecasts?», Peterson Institute for International Economics, 15 March
- Kirkegaard J.F., and Zettelmeyer J., (2018), «The Merkel Era Is Ending—What It Means for the German Government», Peterson Institute for International Economics, 30 October