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The international role of the euro

ECB/The international role of the euro/June 2018 In 2017 and early 2018, the strong and broad-based growth momentum in the euro area economy as well as the continued impact of the ECB’s asset purchase programme were among the main developments affecting the international role of the euro. In this environment, the international use of the euro showed signs of broad stabilisation. For instance, the shares of the euro in global …Read More

The Italian Crisis

Silvia Merler, (2018), “The Italian Crisis”, Bruegel, 4 June Ferdinando Giugliano notices how the Italian president has been cast as an enemy of democracy after his refusal to accept a eurosckeptic finance minister, while the anti-establishment League (La Lega) and the Five Star Movement (Movimento 5 Stelle or M5S) parties – who chose to blow up their attempt to form a government instead of proposing an alternative name – have …Read More

The retirement-consumption puzzle: New evidence from personal finances

Arna Olafsson, Michaela Pagel, (2018), “The retirement-consumption puzzle: New evidence from personal finances”, VoxEU, 7 June A large academic literature in economics analyses changes in household consumption upon retirement. After all, household consumption is the most important part of aggregate demand and the increase in the share of the workforce that will be approaching or past retirement age in the coming years puts this topic at centerstage for both policymakers and …Read More

Monetary policy in a low interest rate environment

ECB (2018)/Monetary policy in a low interest rate environment/6 June Monetary policy plays an important role by creating an environment which facilitates the necessary structural adjustments, even if in itself it cannot address structural aspects of the economy. Indeed, by laying the groundwork for a return of inflation to our objective, our monetary policy measures have been supporting economic activity and have alleviated damage to the economy’s growth potential. Our …Read More

The turnaround of the Portuguese economy: Two decades of structural changes

Mário Centeno, Miguel Castro Coelho, (2018), “The turnaround of the Portuguese economy: Two decades of structural changes”, VoxEU, 6 June In the run-up to introduction of the euro in 2002, perceptions about Portugal’s economic prospects and investment risk changed, resulting in a substantial increase in private debt and a mild domestic demand-led boom. The boom gave way, in the 2000s, to a decade of protracted growth, worsening labour market conditions, …Read More

Understanding populism: What role do crises play in the growth of Euroscepticism?

Andrea L. P. Pirro, (2018), “Understanding populism: What role do crises play in the growth of Euroscepticism?”, EUROPP, LSE, 6 June Three distinct crises have hit the European Union in the last decade: the Great Recession, the migration crisis, and Brexit. As Andrea L. P. Pirro explains, there has been a widespread assumption that populist parties with Eurosceptic profiles have been the main political beneficiaries from these crises. But there …Read More

Italy’s crisis and the question of democracy

Andrea Lorenzo Capussela, (2018), “Italy’s crisis and the question of democracy”, EUROPP, LSE, 4 June The crisis exploded on the highest of Rome’s hills, between the evening of Sunday 28 May and the following afternoon. The trigger was a sequence of three discrete choices. First, the president of the republic refused to appoint as finance minister the person chosen by the two political parties that prepared to take office, the …Read More

Eurostat-4% of EU citizens of working age live in another EU Member State

Eurostat/4% of EU citizens of working age live in another/EU Member State 3.8% of European Union (EU) citizens of working age (20-64) were residing in another Member State than that of their citizenship in 2017. This share has increased from 2.5% ten years ago. The situation varies among Member States, ranging from 1.0% for working age citizens of Germany to 19.7% for citizens of Romania. Tertiary graduates are generally more …Read More

OECD – Greece – Economic forecast summary (May 2018)

OECD – Greece – Economic forecast summary (May 2018) GDP growth is projected to rise to 2.3% in 2019. Exports will be the main driver of growth, benefitting from rising external demand and improved competitiveness. Investment and private consumption will recover as confidence rebuilds, following improved fiscal crediblity. Continuing high excess capacity will limit price and wage pressures. In 2018, the budget surplus will out-perform the medium-term target, through restrained …Read More

How worried should we be about an Italian debt crisis?

Silvia Merler, Oliver Blanchard & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, (2018), “How worried should we be about an Italian debt crisis?”, Bruegel, 28 May Earlier PIIE research examined whether rising interest rates might unleash a debt crisis in Italy. The answer was “no,” under two conditions: First, that rising interest rates reflected economic recovery; and second, that the Italian government would be prepared to cooperate with European authorities—the European Union, the European Stability …Read More