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Central Banks in the Dock

Barry Eichengreen, (2017), “Central Banks in the Dock”, Project Syndicate, 10 November Today, central banks are under attack for missing their inflation targets, failing to maintain financial stability or restore it in transparent ways, and ignoring the global repercussions of their policies. But compromising central bank independence in order to enhance political accountability would be to throw the baby out with the bathwater. Relevant Posts Bordo, Michael, Siklos, Pierre, (2017), …Read More

Euro Economy Is Heading Towards a Golden Period

Jana Randow, (2017), “Euro Economy Is Heading Towards a Golden Period”, Bloomberg View, 13 Νοεμβρίου Europe is no longer the sick man of the world economy. The 19-nation euro-zone bloc is already enjoying the strongest growth in a decade and now economists at Credit Suisse Group AG and Oxford Economics are declaring that it’s heading toward a golden period of low-inflationary expansion. The turnaround is striking for a region that …Read More

Germany’s Dangerous Obsession

Jean Pisany-Ferry, (2017), “Germany’s Dangerous Obsession”, Project Syndicate, 9 November The European Union’s ability to respond to global and internal challenges will depend largely on the governing program that emerges from Germany’s ongoing coalition talks. Will the next German government be willing to put fears of unfair EU redistribution to the side, or will it continue to allow those fears to dictate its every action? Relevant Posts Bershidsky, Leonid, (2017), …Read More

The Greek great depression: a general equilibrium study of its drivers

George Economides, Dimitris Papageorgiou, Apostolis Philippopoulos, (2017), “The Greek great depression: a general equilibrium study of its drivers”, Bank of Greece Working Paper 234, September This paper provides a quantitative study of the main determinants of the Greek great depression since 2010. We use a medium-scale DSGE model calibrated to the Greek economy between 2000 and 2009 (the euphoria years that followed the adoption of the euro). Then, departing from …Read More

Continued growth in a changing policy context: The European Commission’s autumn forecast

Marco Buti, Björn Döhring, (2017), “Continued growth in a changing policy context: The European Commission’s autumn forecast”, VoxEU, 9 November The Eurozone economy is growing at its fastest rate in a decade, but the recovery remains incomplete. This column presents the European Commission’s autumn forecast, and derives some policy considerations. Accommodative macroeconomic policies are still appropriate for now. The column also highlights the need for structural policies to increase the …Read More

Autumn 2017 Economic Forecast

European Commission, (2017), “Autumn 2017 Economic Forecast”, November The euro area economy is on track to grow at its fastest pace in a decade this year, with real GDP growth forecast at 2.2%. This is substantially higher than expected in spring (1.7%). The EU economy as a whole is also set to beat expectations with robust growth of 2.3% this year (up from 1.9% in spring). According to its Autumn …Read More

European banks – The quest for the best business model

Sabine Lautenschläger, (2017), “European banks – The quest for the best business model”, European Central Bank, 7 November The banking sector is going through tough times. Having emerged from a major crisis, it faces challenges and change. But one thing has not changed, and it never will. A bank needs a sustainable business model. It has to earn revenues; it has to keep its costs in check; and it has …Read More

Europe in the Time of Trump

Guy Verhofstadt, (2017), “Europe in the Time of Trump”, Project Syndicate, 8 Νovember Almost daily, new evidence emerges that Trump remains committed to his “America First” approach, which renounces the traditional US role as the world’s main defender of liberal democracy. The only way to protect the liberal world order is for other powers – beginning with the EU – to step into the breach. Relevant Posts Emmanuel Mourlon-Druol, (2017), …Read More

European banking supervision three years on

Mario Draghi (2017), “European banking supervision three years on”, European Central Bank, 7  November We are now three years into the life of European banking supervision, and the track record so far is encouraging. Though the single supervisor is still a young and developing institution, it has in many ways lived up to the high expectations that accompanied its founding.(..)In short, European supervision and European monetary policy have proven to …Read More

The Real Risk to the Global Economy

Christopher Smart, (2017),  “The Real Risk to the Global Economy”, Project Syndicate, 8 Νοvember One might assume that the brewing crises on the Korean Peninsula and in the Middle East pose a serious threat to the current global economic expansion. But political crises often induce only brief market corrections, whereas gradual shifts in international global institutions can be far more consequential for investor behavior.Οne of the great mysteries of today’s …Read More