Monokroussos, P. (2014) “Full coverage of projected financing gap possible up to at least 2020, without recourse to a new aid package from official lender“, Greece Macro Monitor, Eurobank Global Markets Research, 18 June.
In their latest reviews of Greece’s economic adjustment programs, both the European Commission and the IMF project a financing gap in the general government accounts to arise in the second semester of next year, amounting to ca €12.5bn over the period 2015-2016. In addition, the updated debt sustainability analysis (DSA) presented in the most recent IMF country report for Greece (June 2014) forecasts the debt ratio to reach 127.7% of GDP in 2020 and 117.2% of GDP at the end of 2022. These are somewhat higher levels than the respective targets set at the November 2012 Eurogroup (ca 124% in 2020 and substantially below 110% in 2022).
Relevant posts:
- Bargain, Ol., Dolls, M., Fuest, Cl., Neumann, D., Peichl, Andr., Pestel, N., Siegloch, S. (2013) “Fiscal union in Europe? Redistributive and stabilizing effects of a European tax-benefit system and fiscal equalization mechanism“, Economic Policy, Vol. 28, Issue 75, pp. 375–422.
- Christodoulakis, N. (2013) “From Grexit to Growth: On Fiscal Multipliers and How to End Recession in Greece“, National Institute Economic Review, No. 224, pp.66-76.
- Alcidi, C. & Gros, D. (2012) “Why is the Greek economy collapsing? A simple tale of high multipliers and low exports“, CEPS, 21 December.