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European Business Cycle Indicators – 2nd Quarter 2016

European Commission, (2016), “European Business Cycle Indicators – 2nd Quarter 2-16”, European Commission publications, Technical Paper 009, July

Both the euro-area and the EU Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) increased modestly over the second quarter of 2016. In June 2016, the ESI maintained a position above the long-term average of 100 in both the euro area (at 104.4) and the EU (at 105.7). At the euro-area sector level, confidence improved among consumers and in all business sectors except for retail trade. EU developments were similar, apart from confidence in services which remained broadly unchanged over the second quarter of 2016.  Compared to March’s readings, the ESI improved in four of the seven largest EU economies (Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and the UK). The indicator decreased in France and remained broadly unchanged in Spain and Poland.  Capacity utilisation in the manufacturing sector decreased in the second quarter but continues to score slightly above its long-term average in both the euro area and the EU. In the services sector, capacity utilisation increased slightly in both areas, resuming the upward tendency that had started in early 2013.

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