ECB/Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area – December 2016/8 December
The economic recovery in the euro area is expected to continue, broadly in line with the September 2016 projections. The expected global recovery and resilient domestic demand, supported by the very accommodative monetary policy stance, past progress made in deleveraging across sectors and a continued improvement in the labour market are projected to sustain the recovery over the projection horizon. In annual terms, real GDP is expected to grow by 1.7% in 2016 and 2017, and by 1.6% in 2018 and 2019. HICP inflation is expected to increase significantly from 0.2% in 2016 to 1.3% in 2017, 1.5% in 2018 and 1.7% in 2019, boosted particularly in the short term by the turnaround in oil prices. Moreover, as labour market slack gradually abates, increases in wage and unit labour cost growth should also strengthen HICP inflation over the projection horizon.
Relevant Posts
- European Commission, (2016), “European Economic Forecast – Autumn 2016”, European Commission Institutional Paper 038, November
- Monokroussos, Platon, D. Thomakos, Dimitrios, G. Gogos, Stylianos, (2016), “Greek real GDP NOWcasting”, Eurobank Research, 8 November