GDP growth is projected to rise to 2.3% in 2019. Exports will be the main driver of growth, benefitting from rising external demand and improved competitiveness. Investment and private consumption will recover as confidence rebuilds, following improved fiscal crediblity. Continuing high excess capacity will limit price and wage pressures.
In 2018, the budget surplus will out-perform the medium-term target, through restrained expenditure and improved tax collection, but then decline towards the target in 2019. Still, public debt remains high. Reducing it will require sustained pro-growth reforms, high primary surpluses and additional debt restructuring. Full reform implementation and keeping the momentum are key to strengthening inclusive growth. Ongoing reforms to better administer and target social protection will relieve high poverty, especially among children.
- OECD, (2017), “Greece – Economic forecast summary”, November
- Eurostat/Euro area annual inflation up to 1.5% /30 November 2017