Konstantinos Efstathiou, (2019), “The latest European growth-rate estimates”, Bruegel, 20 May The quarterly growth rate of the euro area in Q1 2018 was 0.4% (1.5% annualized), considerably higher than the low growth rates of the previous two quarters. This blog reviews the reaction to the release of these numbers and the discussion they have triggered about the euro area’s economic challenges. Relevant Posts European Commission (2019), «European Economic Forecast – …Read More
What is in store for the EU’s trade relationship with the US ?
Uri Dadush, (2019), “What is in store for the EU’s trade relationship with the US ?”, Bruegel, 16 May If faced with a resurgent President Trump after the next US election, the EU will have some difficult decisions to make as it is compelled to enter a one-sided negotiation. Failure to strike a deal will imperil the world’s largest trade relationship and contribute to the progressive unravelling of the rules …Read More
Μέρκελ: Αποδείχθηκαν σωστές οι μεταρρυθμίσεις στην Ελλάδα
Capital.gr, (2019), “Μέρκελ: Αποδείχθηκαν σωστές οι μεταρρυθμίσεις στην Ελλάδα”, 16 Μαϊου Σωστές αποδείχθηκαν οι μεταρρυθμίσεις στην Ελλάδα, την Πορτογαλία, την Ιρλανδία και την Ισπανία, δηλώνει η Καγκελάριος Άγγελα Μέρκελ, η οποία ωστόσο παραδέχεται ότι το βάρος για τον λαό ήταν “τεράστιο”. Σε ό,τι αφορά την προσφυγική κρίση, υπερασπίζεται την πολιτική της και υποστηρίζει ότι “αν δεν είχαμε δράσει ή είχαμε δράσει διαφορετικά, οι συνέπειες θα ήταν σήμερα πολύ χειρότερες”. Σχετικές …Read More
The ECB Song Contest?
Stefan Gerlach, (2019), “The ECB Song Contest?”, Project Syndicate, 13 May Choosing the next president of the European Central Bank should not be like picking the winner of the Eurovision Song Contest. Instead, Europe should ask which criteria candidates must satisfy to be an effective ECB president, and then search for the person who best meets them. Relevant Posts Craig Stirling, (2019), «Draghi Makes Sure Stimulus Lives On Even After …Read More
Germany’s even larger than expected fiscal surpluses: Is there a link with the constitutional debt brake?
Catarina Midoes and Guntram B. Wolff, (2019), “Germany’s even larger than expected fiscal surpluses: Is there a link with the constitutional debt brake?”, Bruegel, 13 May Germany is having a political debate on the adjustment of its budgetary plans due to revised forecasts, and an academic debate on the debt brake. Yet, since 2011, general government revenues and surpluses have been systematically and significantly higher than forecast. The German surplus …Read More
The Return of Fiscal Policy
Barry Eichengreen, (2019), “The Return of Fiscal Policy”, Project Syndicate, 13 May Public debt is not a free lunch in an economy close to full employment. But when investment demand tends to fall short of saving, as it does when monetary policymakers are unable to push inflation higher to reduce real interest rates, there is a risk of chronic underemployment – and a stronger argument for deficit spending. Relevant Posts …Read More
How to design a stimulus package
Pascal Michaillat and Emmanuel Saez, (2019), “How to design a stimulus package”, VoxEU, 13 May Academics and policymakers alike have debated how to structure an optimal stimulus package since the Great Recession. This column revisits the arguments related to the size of the multiplier and the usefulness of public spending, and offers a blueprint for future stimulus packages. It finds that the relationship between the multiplier and stimulus spending is …Read More
European Parliament elections preview: Greece
Zoe Alipranti, (2019), “European Parliament elections preview: Greece”, LSE EUROPP, 13 May The last European Parliament elections in 2014 took place during a period of significant tension over the Greek debt crisis. As Zoe Alipranti explains, this time around, the European Parliament elections in Greece are unlikely to feature such a high level of polarisation over Europe. Syriza has drifted away from its radical Euroscepticism, and although substantial dissatisfaction persists …Read More
Italy’s incurable economy
Silvia Sciorilli Borrelli, (2019), “Italy’s incurable economy”, Politico, 13 May Ιtaly’s economy is sick and the governing coalition can’t agree on the cure — among themselves or with Brussels. The European Commission said last week that the government’s flagship measures — an early retirement scheme and a citizens’ income (a monthly allowance for certain jobseekers) — failed to trigger the growth the League-5Stars coalition had envisaged. To make matters worse, …Read More
Uncertainty shocks, monetary policy and long-term interest rates
Gianni Amisano and Oreste Tristani, (2019), “Uncertainty shocks, monetary policy and long-term interest rates”, ECB Working Paper Series No 2279, May We study the relationship between monetary policy and long-term rates in a structural, general equilibrium model estimated on both macro and yields data from the United States. Regime shifts in the conditional variance of productivity shocks, or ”uncertainty shocks”, are an important model ingredient. First, they account for countercyclical …Read More