Eurostat, (2019),”Seasonally adjusted government deficit decreased to 0.5% of GDP in the euro area“, July In the first quarter of 2019, the seasonally adjusted general government deficit to GDP ratio stood at 0.5% in the euro area (EA19), a decrease compared with 1.1% in the fourth quarter of 2018. In the EU28, the deficit to GDP ratio stood at 0.6%, a decrease compared with 1.0% in the previous quarter. Relevant …Read More
Productivity and competitiveness in the euro area: A view from France
Blanchard, Olivier et. al., (2019)”Productivity and competitiveness in the euro area: A view from France“, Vox CEPR Policy Portal, July In September 2016, the European Council invited all euro area members to set up a National Productivity Board to focus on productivity and competitiveness. This column summarises the main findings of the first report of the Conseil National de Productivité, which analyses the causes of the French productivity slowdown that are …Read More
An Effective Regime for Non-viable Banks: US Experience and Considerations for EU Reform
Veron, Nicolas, (2019), “An Effective Regime for Non-viable Banks: US Experience and Considerations for EU Reform“, July The US regime for non-viable banks has maintained a high degree of stability and public confidence by protecting deposits, while working to minimise the public cost of that protection. EU reformers can draw valuable insights from the US experience. A review of the US regime supports arguments in favour of harmonisation and centralisation …Read More
Can Europe Become a Global Player?
Leonard, Mark, (2019), “Can Europe Become a Global Player?“, Project-Syndicate.org, July As the nominee to serve as the EU’s next High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Spanish Foreign Minister Josep Borrell will have an opportunity to update Europe’s approach to foreign policy. Chief among the challenges facing the bloc is to reassert its own sovereignty in an age of great-power politics. Relevant Posts Ottaviano, Gianmarco, (2019), “The economic …Read More
The International Monetary Fund leadership is not a bargaining counter
Tooze, Adam, (2019), “The International Monetary Fund leadership is not a bargaining counter“, Social Europe, July In the grand European political reshuffle of 2019, it turned out that Christine Lagarde was the answer to the conundrum of who should replace Mario Draghi at the European Central Bank. But her move opens another question. Who succeeds Lagarde at the International Monetary Fund? The question is a European question because, as part …Read More
Are Central Banks Losing Their Big Bet?
El-Erian, Mohammed, (2019), “Are Central Banks Losing Their Big Bet?“, Project-Syndicate, July Following the 2008 global financial crisis, central banks bet that greater activism on the part of other policymakers would be their salvation, helping them to normalize their operations. But that activism never came, and central bankers are now facing a lose-lose proposition. Relevant Posts Claeys, Gregory, (2019),”The evolution of the ECB governing council’s decision-making“, Bruegel.org, June Gilbert, Mark, …Read More
Government debt up to 85.9% of GDP in euro area
Eurostat, (2019), “Government debt up to 85.9% of GDP in euro area“, July At the end of the first quarter of 2019, the government debt to GDP ratio in the euro area stood at 85.9%, compared with 85.1% at the end of the fourth quarter of 2018. In the EU28, the ratio increased from 80.0% to 80.7%. However, compared with the first quarter of 2018, the government debt to GDP …Read More
Monetary policy and bank equity values in a time of low and negative interest rates
Ampudia, Miguel, Van den Heuvel Skander, (2019), “Monetary policy and bank equity values in a time of low and negative interest rates“, Vox CEPR Policy Portal, July The effects of interest rate surprises on banks are different when nominal interest rates are very low. This column reveals how, in ‘normal’ times, policy rate announcements that are below market expectations tend to boost banks’ stock prices on average. When interest rates are very …Read More
What’s Next for Europe’s Capital Markets?
Faull Jonathan, Gleeson Simon, (2019), “What’s Next for Europe’s Capital Markets?“, Project Syndicate, July When the United Kingdom eventually leaves the European Union – assuming it does – it will take Europe’s biggest capital market with it. The loss of the City of London could drive the EU’s 27 remaining members to pursue an inward-looking strategy for managing their capital markets. But, as we argue in a new policy brief for the Centre …Read More
‘Lo spread’: The collateral damage of Italy’s confrontation with the EU
Claeys, Gregory and Mazza Jan, “‘Lo spread’: The collateral damage of Italy’s confrontation with the EU“, Bruegel.org, July The authors assess whether the European Commission’s actions towards Italy since September 2018 have had a visible impact on the spread between Italian sovereign-bond yields and those of Germany, and particularly whether the Commission’s warnings have acted as a ‘signalling device’ for bond-market participants that it might be difficult for Italy to …Read More