Wolff, Β. G., Fratzscher, M. & Hüther, M. (2015) “The ECB’s bond-purchase dilemma – German opposition to government-bond purchases by the European Central Bank is solidifying ahead of the programme’s likely announcement“, Bruegel Institute, 21 January.
German opposition to government-bond purchases by the European Central Bank is solidifying ahead of the programme’s likely announcement on January 22. Elections in Greece that could bring a government that will seek to negotiate the country’s debt with official creditors puts the ECB’s decision under even greater scrutiny. The fact that the ECB did not share losses in the previous round of Greek debt restructuring highlights the problem of sovereign QE, which is not feasible or will be ineffective if fiscal implications are excluded. The design of the programme is therefore crucial.
With the euro-area inflation rate at minus 0,2% and an increasing de-anchoring of inflation expectations, the ECB is falling far short of fulfilling its mandate of keeping inflation below but close to 2%. Many German economists and politicians downplay this failure by trying to re-define price stability as an inflation rate above zero. This is wrong for a number of reasons. A third of the sectors in the euro area, including in Germany, is in deflation. Low inflation is harmful because it makes price adjustment harder, undermines investment and renders debt service more difficult.
Monetary policy alone cannot fix all the problems of low growth and low inflation as many Germans rightly point out. Significant structural reforms and investment to stimulate higher demand will pay off rather quickly. A strong commitment to such reforms is essential for exiting the crisis. Nevertheless, the ECB should not and cannot hide behind slow government progress on reform, but should instead fulfill its mandate.
The reason for the growing German opposition to a sovereign QE programme is the fear that it could result in illicit monetary financing of governments. A QE programme would have to be combined with an implicit understanding that the ECB accepts losses on the same terms as private creditors in case of a debt restructuring. Otherwise, the purchase of low-rated government debt would be largely ineffective and could even lead to an increase in sovereign yields.The ECB has four options.
Relevant posts:
- Durden, T. (2014) “The ECB Changes Its Mind Which Bonds It Will Monetize, Then It Changes It Again“, ΘZeroHedge, 20 October.
- Kirkegaard, F. J. (2014) “ECB Sovereign Bond Purchases Remain Unlikely“, Peterson Institute for International Economics, 01 October.
- Frankel, J. (2014) “The ECB Should Do QE, Mario? Buy US Bonds, Not Eurobonds“, VoxEU Organisation, 24 March.