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How Inflation Could Return

Mohamed A. El-Erian, (2019), “How Inflation Could Return”, Project Syndicate, 22 May After years of low inflation, investors and policymakers have settled into a cyclical mindset that assumes advanced economies are simply suffering from insufficient aggregate demand. But they are ignoring structural factors at their peril. Relevant Posts Barry Eichengreen, (2019), «The Return of Fiscal Policy», Project Syndicate, 13 May Daniel Gros, (2019), «Who’s Afraid of Low Inflation?», Project Syndicate, 9 …Read More

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Public debt and the risk premium: A dangerous doom loop

Cinzia Alcidi and Daniel Gros, (2019), “Public debt and the risk premium: A dangerous doom loop”, VoxEU, 23 May The relationship between high public debt and low interest rates is once again at the forefront of debate.This column shows that countries with high debt levels pay a risk premium. This creates the potential for self-reinforcing loops of high debt and high risk premia, which can become explosive. Relevant Posts Giancarlo …Read More

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How to improve European Union cohesion policy for the next decade

Zsolt Darvas, Jan Mazza and Catarina Midoes, (2019), “How to improve European Union cohesion policy for the next decade”, Bruegel Policy Contribution No 8, May The academic literature on the effectiveness of the European Union’s cohesion policy is inconclusive: some studies find positive long-term impacts, others find positive but only short-term impacts, while others find no or even negative impacts. This range of results arises from major complicating factors, related …Read More

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Prudential regulation, national differences and banking stability

Angela Maddaloni and Alessandro Scopelliti, (2019), “Prudential regulation, national differences and banking stability”, ECB Research Bulletin No. 58, 23 May What role does prudential regulation play in the prevention of banking crises? Before the financial crisis there were important national differences in the implementation of the EU framework for capital regulation. This article suggests that these differences had important implications for the resilience of banks during the crisis and that, …Read More

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The EU’s Four Challenges

Ana Palacio, (2019), “The EU’s Four Challenges”, Project Syndicate, 22 May Whatever the next European Parliament’s composition, the imperative will be the same: EU institutions must trade ambition for humility, focusing their attention not on their own power or status, but rather on upgrading and fortifying the project for which they claim to stand. If they fail, the road ahead will only become more perilous. Relevant Posts Gros, Daniel (2019), …Read More

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Portugal’s lonely populists

Paul Ames, (2019), “Portugal’s lonely populists”, Politico, 21 May The populist wind blowing across Europe seems to have run out of puff in western Portugal. A new radical-right party pledging to shake up Portuguese politics went campaigning in the streets of this blue-collar city late last week. By the time the party leader arrived, just 14 people had turned up. Relevant Posts Karl Aiginger, (2019), «Populism: Roots, consequences, and counter …Read More

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A heterogenous response to unconventional monetary policy

Anne-Laure Delatte, Pranav Garg and Jean Imbs, (2019), “A heterogenous response to unconventional monetary policy”, VoxEU, 21 May The ECB’s unconventional monetary policy package implemented in February 2012 changed collateral requirements. This column examines the effects in the French credit market, using data on corporate loans. Credit indeed increased after the liquidity injection, exclusively driven by supply. There was also strategic risk-taking by a group of banks, an unintentional implication …Read More

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The latest European growth-rate estimates

Konstantinos Efstathiou, (2019), “The latest European growth-rate estimates”, Bruegel, 20 May The quarterly growth rate of the euro area in Q1 2018 was 0.4% (1.5% annualized), considerably higher than the low growth rates of the previous two quarters. This blog reviews the reaction to the release of these numbers and the discussion they have triggered about the euro area’s economic challenges. Relevant Posts European Commission (2019), «European Economic Forecast – …Read More

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Annual inflation up to 1.7% in the euro area

Eurostat/Annual inflation up to 1.7% in the euro area/17 May 2019 The euro area annual inflation rate was 1.7% in April 2019, up from 1.4% in March 2019. A year earlier, the rate was 1.2%. European Union annual inflation was 1.9% in April 2019, up from 1.6% in March 2019. A year earlier, the rate was 1.5%. These figures are published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. …Read More

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What is in store for the EU’s trade relationship with the US ?

Uri Dadush, (2019), “What is in store for the EU’s trade relationship with the US ?”, Bruegel, 16 May If faced with a resurgent President Trump after the next US election, the EU will have some difficult decisions to make as it is compelled to enter a one-sided negotiation. Failure to strike a deal will imperil the world’s largest trade relationship and contribute to the progressive unravelling of the rules …Read More

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