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European Economic Forecast – Spring 2019

European Commission (2019), “European Economic Forecast – Spring 2019“, Institutional Paper 102, May

Economic activity in the EU slowed further in the second half of 2018 as growth in the global economy and trade weakened amid tightened global financing conditions, unresolved trade tensions, high uncertainty, and as a result of exceptional weakness in the manufacturing sector that extended into the start of 2019. The slowdown was even more pronounced in the euro area as the region is not only highly dependent on external demand, but has also been hit by a number of sector- and country-specific factors, mainly in its largest economy, that have weighed on sentiment as well as on trade between euro area partners. These include disruptions in the car manufacturing sector, social tensions, policy uncertainty, as well as uncertainty related to Brexit.

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