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This section contains original papers written exclusively for the Crisis Observatory. The Observatory hosted three different publication series: opinion articles, policy papers, and research papers. Access to the Crisis Observatory papers is free.

Athanassios Petralias & Pródromos Prodromídis: Price discovery under crisis: Uncovering the determinant factors of prices using efficient Bayesian model selection methods

We seek to uncover the determinants of consumer prices in Greece by considering a large set of potential factors and accounting for delayed effects. To accomplish this we rely on recently presented Bayesian model selection methods which are efficiently adapted in the present context. Consumer prices drop significantly during the periods of discount sales, especially in the last two years; VAT changes are mostly absorbed (above 50%) by the producers; …Read More

Chara Georgiadou: Europe’s Japanese Winter: A Brussels view

There is a general sense that the crisis is far from being over yet and that it has three main branches; it is a government debt crisis, a banking crisis and a competitiveness crisis. EU’s current status is metaphorically identified as the beginning of a Japanese winter; A long period of economic stagnation where Europe will have to face an extremely slow economic growth for a whole decade more or …Read More

Vassilios G. Papavassiliou: Financial contagion during the European sovereign debt crisis: a selective literature review

Contagion is an elusive concept and several definitions have been used in the literature. According to Forbes and Rigobon (2002) contagion is defined as a significant increase in cross-market linkages after a shock to one country. In this paper we provide a selective literature review on international financial contagion, placing special emphasis on the ongoing European sovereign debt crisis. In summary, empirical research has pointed toward the existence of contagion …Read More

Ioannis Avramopoulos: Self-organized digital numismatic economies

Greece has suffered a prolonged period of economic crisis and contraction unlikely to end any time soon, although signs of recovery are on the horizon. Scientists and political leaders alike, not only in Greece but also internationally, are in a desperate search for methods to revitalize the Greek economy. The structural problems facing the Greek economy are perhaps not unique to this country, and the attention of the global community …Read More

Rebekka Christopoulou & Vassilis Monastiriotis: The public-private duality in wage reforms and adjustment during the Greek crisis

There is a general perception that the crisis in Greece impacted mostly public sector wages, whereas in fact its impact on private sector wages has been equally large, if not larger. In this paper we examine sector-specific wage reforms and dynamics for the duration of the crisis, using micro-data from the Greek Labour Force Survey over 2009-2013 and applying a wage-decomposition analysis on the basis of an endogenous switching regression …Read More

Javier Díaz-Giménez & Morten Olsen: The Future of Spain (2014 and beyond)

Between the first quarter of 1998 and the fourth quarter of 2007 the real growth of the Spanish economy was outstanding, averaging an annual growth rate of 3.7 per cent. This compares favorably with the big five European Union economies and is second only to the truly miraculous growth of Ireland’s real GDP. However, the future growth of Spain will depend on many factors. When we look into the crystal …Read More

Cyprus – A Year after the Bail-in

In March 2013 Cyprus experienced the shock of a depositor bail-in for its two systemic banks. Large capital inflows, bad banking practices, excessive construction activity and a general culture of over-consumption had created huge imbalances during the boom years of 2004-2008 (as described in “The Time of Truth for Cyprus”, Opinion Article No 5, March 2013). The global financial crisis burst the bubble and a painful adjustment was inevitable. The …Read More

Akis Sakellariou: The State, NGOs and the Rest

Certainly, recent revelations involving two Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) in financial scandals did not come as a shock. In our country, NGOs have been identified with opacity and lack of accountability, with the exception of some luminous cases. In addition to showcasing the problematic institutional framework within which NGOs operate in Greece since the 1990s, these two scandals have offered an excellent opportunity to initiate a fruitful and meaningful public debate, …Read More

Paolo Manasse, Isabella Rota Baldini: What’s Wrong with Europe?

The US and Europe; a tale of two cities: while the economic recovery is well underway in the United States, with growth back to 2.5 percent and falling unemployment, the Eurozone economy is struggling to recover. Why? We argue that the major differences between the two areas go a long way in providing an explanation. In short, unlike the U.S, the Eurozone is an heterogeneous federation of independent states, an …Read More

Economic Crisis, Social Solidarity and the Voluntary Sector in Greece

Sotiropoulos, A. D. & Bourikos, D. (2014) “Economic Crisis, Social Solidarity and the Voluntary Sector in Greece: Summary report of the Crisis Observatory research project on the social consequences of the economic crisis in Greece and the response of civil society organizations to the crisis”, Crisis Observatory, 10 April.   After the onset of the economic crisis in Greece, the social situation of middle- and low-income groups deteriorated rapidly. As …Read More