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Emerging economy corporate debt: The threat to financial stability

Acharya, Viral, Cecchetti, Stephen, De Gregorio, José, Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem, R. Lane, Philip, Panizza, Ugo, (2015), “Emerging economy corporate debt: The threat to financial stability”, Voxeu, 5 October Emerging market firms have borrowed in foreign currency to take advantage of low interest rates. This column argues that when the Fed inevitably raises rates, such borrowing will be a threat to emerging economy financial systems. Yet so long as authorities use their existing prudential tools wisely, the risks appear manageable. Relevant Posts Boughton, …Read More

Emerging Market Corporate Debt in Foreign Currencies

Elekdag, Selim, Gelos, Gaston, (2015), “Emerging Market Corporate Debt in Foreign Currencies”, IMF Direct, 1 October Debt held by firms in emerging market economies in a currency other than their own poses extra complications these days. When the U.S. Fed does eventually raise interest rates, the accompanying further strengthening of the U.S. dollar will mean an emerging market’s own currency will depreciate against the higher value of the U.S. dollar, …Read More

The sticky superpower

Economist, (2015), “The sticky superpower”, Special Report, 3 October IN JUNE THIS year Jack Ma, the founder of Alibaba, a giant Chinese e-commerce firm, addressed the Economic Club of New York, whose members include many Manhattan luminaries and Wall Street chiefs. Mr Ma’s message was that his company exists for the long-term good of society, a far cry from the creed of shareholder value followed by many in the room. …Read More

Commission eyes pragmatic steps towards Capital Markets Union

Ruparel, Raoul, (2015), “Commission eyes pragmatic steps towards Capital Markets Union”, Open Europe, 30 September The European Commission has today released its detailed “Action Plan” for the creation of a Capital Markets Union (CMU). Open Europe’s Raoul Ruparel assess what is and what is not included in the plans. Relevant Posts Wolff, Guntram and Veron Nicolas, (2015) “Capital Markets Union: a vision for the long term”, 24 April Louri-Dendrinou, Ε. (2014) …Read More

Measuring the interest premium for past default

AV Catão, Luis, C. Mano, Rui, (2015), “Measuring the interest premium for past default”, Voxeu, 29 September Sovereign governments re-entering capital markets after debt renegotiations pay an interest rate premium for past defaults. This column presents new evidence that suggests earlier studies have underestimated this premium. This is partly due to the narrow credit history indicators used in previous studies as well as the narrow data coverage. Correcting for these problems, a sizeable …Read More

Strengthening the beating heart of the European economy

Harbour, Malcolm, (2015), “Strengthening the beating heart of the European economy”, European Policy Centre Publications, 29 September In an atmosphere of crisis, distrust and fragmentation, policy-makers in Brussels are mostly focused on fighting fire without having an ambitious vision for the future – in effect, muddling through, as has been the characteristic response in recent years. However, by remaining in crisis response mode, the European Union (EU) is failing to provide …Read More

The political economy of liberal democracy

Mukand, Sharun, Rodrik, Dani, (2015), “The political economy of liberal democracy“, Voxeu, 29 September There are more democracies in the world than non-democracies, but few of the democracies go beyond electoral competition. This column highlights the contrast between electoral democracies and liberal ones, that is, those that protect civil rights in addition to political and property rights. Liberal democracies are rare because the failure to protect minority rights is a common consequence of the …Read More

The BRICS Fallacy

Palacio, Ana, (2015), “The BRICS Fallacy”, Project Syndicate, 29 September The recent downgrade of Brazil’s credit rating to junk status was followed by a raft of articles heralding the crumbling of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). How predictable: schadenfreude almost always follows bad news about the BRICS, whose members were once hailed as the world’s up-and-coming economic powerhouses and next major political force. Relevant Posts Παπανικολάου, …Read More

Low interest rates, capital flows, and declining productivity in South Europe

Gopinath, Gita, Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem, Karabarbounis, Loukas, Villegas-Sanchez, Carolina, (2015), “Low interest rates, capital flows, and declining productivity in South Europe”,  Voxeu, 28 September Joining the Eurozone was once a near unquestionably good idea. Now, the costs of joining the monetary union are under close scrutiny. This column takes a slightly different tack, presenting an alternative perspective on how joining the euro has impacted productivity in southern Europe. It turns out that capital wasn’t allocated efficiently across firms …Read More

How Germany Gains From The Euro While Others Pay

Janssen, Ronald, (2015), “How Germany Gains From The Euro While Others Pay”, Social Europe Journal, 27 September One of its main ideas is that the euro area lacks a procedure that could declare member states bankrupt when having lost access to financial markets. This makes the restructuring of unsustainably high debt burdens even more complicated than it is. Schäuble’s non-paper even uses the Greek crisis to argue that this situation …Read More