Mersch, Yves, (2017), “Why Europe Still Needs Cash”, Project Syndicate, 26 April Non-cash payment options have been proliferating in recent years. Credit cards, online transfers, and direct-debit payments are already well established. Now, smartphone-enabled digital-payment solutions and mobile wallets are also gaining ground. The emergence of potentially disruptive innovations like distributed ledger technologies indicate that further and possibly fundamental change may be on the horizon. Independent of these new and incipient …Read More

Berger, Ennet, Wolff, Guntram B., (2017), “The global decline in the labour income share: is capital the answer to Germany’s current account surplus?”, Bruegel, 26 April There are two broad views of adjustment in Europe’s economic and monetary union. The first is that the divergence of competitiveness in the euro area is the fault of the peripheral countries, which were guilty of “losing their competitiveness simply by becoming too expensive” prior …Read More

Cheung, Yin-Wong, Chinn, Menzie , Pascual, Antonio Garcia, Zhang, Yi, (2017), “Exchange rate prediction redux”, Vox Eu, 27 April Over the past decade, advanced economy exchange rates have exhibited substantial variability, even as conventional empirical determinants – such as interest rates and inflation – have remained fairly stable. At the same, the Global Crisis was associated with unprecedented levels of risk and illiquidity, with obvious effects on financial markets. These developments …Read More

Emons, Ben, (2017), “ECB Meeting Comes at a Precarious Time for Markets”, Bloomberg View, 25 April The recent economic data out of the euro zone is encouraging. Production, manufacturing and confidence are robust, and inflation has stabilized. That’s not to say that there aren’t risks to the downside, such as growing populism, global geopolitical tensions, and uncertainty about sustainability of the economic recovery. To insure against these risks, the European …Read More

Speciale, Alessandro, (2017), “Draghi’s Stimulus Could Blunt Populism as Unemployment Falls”, Bloomberg Markets, 25 April Mario Draghi’s stimulus didn’t prevent the rise of populists who want to reject the euro, but it might be taking the edge off the economic pain that fueled their support. The European Central Bank president has pushed through measures that have led the currency bloc out of a double-dip recession and cut unemployment, a key source of …Read More

Collignon, Stefan, Diessner, Sebastian, (2017), “The ECB’s Monetary Dialogue with the European Parliament: Efficiency and Accountability during the Euro Crisis?”, Journal of Common Market Studies, July The monetary dialogue between the European Parliament and the European Central Bank (ECB) is a key component for the democratic accountability of the independent central bank. We provide new evidence for the efficiency of the dialogue and present the results of a survey conducted amongst the …Read More

Kahn, Robert, (2017), “France After the Election: What Next for Economic Policy in Europe?”, CFR, 24 April French election results show Emmanuel Macron in first place with 23.9 percent of the vote and Marine Le Pen in second with 21.4 percent, setting the stage for a run-off election on May 7. Early polls show a comfortable edge for Macron, the pro-E.U. former economy minister who ran on a campaign of …Read More

Abad, Jorge, D’Errico, Marco, Killeen, Neill, Luz, Vera, Peltonen, Tuomas, Portes, Richard, Urbano, Teresa, (2017), “Mapping the interconnectedness between EU banks and shadow banking entities”, Vox EU, 25 April 2017 The Global Crisis exposed shortcomings in the assessment of cross-sector and cross-border linkages in the financial system. The interaction of banks and insurance corporations with shadow banking entities led to the amplification of risks and spillovers which were transmitted across sectors …Read More