Ahir, H. & Loungani, P. (2014) “‘There will be growth in the spring:’ How well do economists predict turning points?“, VoxEU Organisation, 14 April.   Forecasters have a poor reputation for predicting recessions. This column quantifies their ability to do so, and explores several reasons why both official and private forecasters may fail to call a recession before it happens. Since the onset of the Great Recession, much of the …Read More

Eichengreen, B. (2014) “Losing Interest“, Project Syndicate, 11 April.   BERKELEY – Two of the world’s most prominent economic institutions, the International Monetary Fund and Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, recently warned that the global economy may be facing an extended period of low interest rates. Why is that a bad thing, and what can be done about it? Adjusted for inflation, interest rates have been falling for three …Read More

Auer, R. (2014) “The increasing competiveness of the southern Eurozone“, VoxEU Organisation, 11 April.   Some view the improvements in current accounts for Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain as short-lived – the result of a temporary compression of import demand that is likely to be reversed as the recession eases. This column argues the contrary, based on the fact that their improving trade balances reflect better export performance. This development …Read More

Noss, J. & Toffano, P. (2014) “Estimating the impact of changes in aggregate bank capital requirements during an upswing“, VoxEU Organisations, 06 April.   The impact of tighter regulatory capital requirements during an economic upswing is a key question in macroprudential policy. This column discusses research suggesting that an increase of 15 basis points in aggregate capital ratios of banks operating in the UK is associated with a median reduction …Read More

Campos, F. N., Coricelli, F. & Moretti, L. (2014) “The eye, the needle and the camel: Rich countries can benefit from EU membership“, VoxEU Organisation, 05 April.   One concern with EU enlargement is that relatively poorer countries benefit more from becoming members. This column uses data from the 1973 and 1995 enlargements to show that richer countries also benefited a lot from joining the EU. Per capita incomes would …Read More