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What’s Holding Back the World Economy?

Stiglitz, Joseph, Rashid, Hamid, (2016), “What’s Holding Back the World Economy?”, Project Syndicate, 8 February Seven years after the global financial crisis erupted in 2008, the world economy continued to stumble in 2015. According to the United Nations’ report World Economic Situation and Prospects 2016, the average growth rate in developed economies has declined by more than 54% since the crisis. An estimated 44 million people are unemployed in developed …Read More

How to resolve a systemic sovereign debt crisis

Sandri, Damiano, (2016), “How to resolve a systemic sovereign debt crisis”, Voxeu, 17 February How should the international community deal with the solvency crisis of a systemic country? This column argues that the presence of spillovers calls for reducing bail-ins, while requiring somewhat greater fiscal adjustment by the crisis country. To avoid excessive fiscal consolidation, the international community should also provide highly systemic countries with official transfers. To contain moral …Read More

Macroprudential Policies in Southeastern Europe

Dimova, Dilyana, Kongsamut, Piyabha, Vandenbussche, Jérôme, (2016), ” Macroprudential Policies in Southeastern Europe”, IMF Publications, 15 February This paper presents a detailed account of the rich set of macroprudential measures taken in four Southeastern European countries—Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, and Serbia—during their synchronized boom and bust cycles in 2003–12, and assesses their effectiveness. We find that only strong measures helped contain domestic credit growth, the share of foreigncurrency- denominated loans provided by the domestic banking sector, or …Read More

EU-UK deal must preserve social rights

Prouza, Tomas, (2016), “EU-UK deal must preserve social rights”, EU Observer, 10 February Given the major, interlinked challenges the European Union is facing, such as the migration and eurozone crises, the UK’s proposals for EU reform might seem less significant than they are. But if we don’t find a solution, the consequences of Brexit might negatively influence the future direction of European integration. Now is time to be decisive and take …Read More

How The Eurozone Can Be Reformed

Wren Lewis, Simon, (2016), “How The Eurozone Can Be Reformed”, Social Europe Journal, 15 February The 50th anniversary issue of Intereconomics is out, and I have a contribution which summarises how I think the Eurozone could succeed without deeply problematic attempts at fiscal and political union. I look at three areas where change is required, and then rerun history to show how the Eurozone crisis could have been transformed into no more …Read More

The case for growth-indexed bonds in advanced economies today

Blanchard, Olivier, Mauro, Paolo, Acalin, Julien, (2016), “The case for growth-indexed bonds in advanced economies today”, Voxeu, 16 February One of the legacies of the Global Crisis is a high ratio of public debt to GDP. While current levels may be sustainable, another series of bad shocks could easily tip the balance and lead to unsustainable debt ratios. This column argues that against this background, growth-indexed bonds can help. By decreasing …Read More

Banking crisis yet again and how to fix it

Micossi, Stefano, (2016), “Banking crisis yet again and how to fix it”, Ceps Commentary, 15 February Almost out of the blue, a combination of diverse factors has elicited a run on bank stocks and junior and senior debt, raising the spectre of a renewed systemic bank crisis within the European Union. The policy response cannot come from the European Central Bank but, instead, must consist of regulatory responses capable of dispelling …Read More

The European Central Bank’s quantitative easing programme: limits and risks

Claeys, Gregory, Leandro, Alvaro, (2016), “The European Central Bank’s quantitative easing programme: limits and risks”, Bruegel publications, 15 February The ECB has made a series of changes to its QE programme in order to expand the universe of purchasable assets and have more flexibility in the execution of the programme. However this might not be enough to sustain QE throughout 2017. The extension of the programme also raises questions about …Read More

Lies, Damned Lies And Yet More Misleading Statistics On Europe

Begg, Iain, (2016), “Lies, Damned Lies And Yet More Misleading Statistics On Europe”, Social Europe, 12 February. In war, according to the ancient Greek dramatist Aeschylus, truth is the first casualty. Plainly, he had not foreseen the Brexit referendum campaign which continues to be dogged by blatant abuse of statistics. As explained in a previous blog, all sides are at it, coming up with spuriously precise figures, using the wrong concepts and definitions, …Read More

Greece: Toward a Workable Program

Thomsen, Poul M., (2016), “Greece: Toward a Workable Program”, Blog iMFdirect, 11 February. Having successfully pulled Greece from the brink last summer and subsequently stabilized the economy, the government of Alexis Tsipras is now discussing with its European partners and the IMF a comprehensive multi-year program that can secure a lasting recovery and make debt sustainable. While discussions continue, there have been some misperceptions about the International Monetary Fund’s views and role in …Read More