Lannoo, Karel, (2013), “The Europe barometer points to stormy weather”, The Centre for European Policy Studies, 17 February. Against the current background of a sharp decline in public support for the EU and an emerging reinforced centre to manage the euro crisis, this commentary finds that the only way Europe’s leaders can hope to keep the fragile equilibrium afloat is to summon up the courage to go forward with concrete …Read More
Darvas, Zsolt, (2013), ‘Can Europe recover without credit?’, Bruegel Policy Contribution, Issue 2013/13. Data from 135 countries covering five decades suggests that creditless recoveries, in which the stock of real credit does not return to the pre-crisis level for three years after the GDP trough, are not rare and are characterised by remarkable real GDP growth rates: 4.7 percent per year in middle-income countries and 3.2 percent per year in …Read More
Veron, Nicolas, Wolff, Guntram B., (2013), “From Supervision to Resolution: Next Steps on the Road to European Banking Union”, The Peterson Institute for International Economics. Special resolution regimes for banks and systemically important financial institutions are an attractive alternative to both insolvency and public bailouts and have a compelling track record. The European Council has outlined a policy sequence of three successive steps including the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM), the …Read More
Satyajit, Das, (2013), ‘Europe’s Debt Crisis Endgames—Stealth Solutions’, www.economonitor.com, 24 January. In his novella Chronicle of a Death Foretold (Crónica de Una Muerte Anunciada in the original Spanish), Gabriel Garcia Marquez commences at the end of the story gradually revealing the events leading up to a murder. The non-linear telling creates an unusual tension. With the conclusion known, only the precise steps leading to the tragedy remain unclear. The probable endgame of Europe’s …Read More
Frankel, Jeffrey, (2013), ‘Will Europe’s Fiscal Compact Work?’, www.project-syndicate.org, 18 January. At the start of 2013, the eurozone’s “fiscal compact” entered into force, owing to its ratification on December 21 by a 12th country, Finland, a year after German Chancellor Angela Merkel prodded eurozone leaders into agreement.
Roubini, Ariel, (2013), ‘The Year Ahead in the Eurozone: Lower Risks, Same Problems’, www.economonitor.com, 14 January. Financial conditions in the eurozone have significantly improved since the summer, when eurozone risks peaked because of German policymakers’ open consideration of a Greek exit, and the sovereign spreads of Italy and Spain reached new heights.
Aslund, Anders, (2013), ‘Why Austerity Works and Stimulus Doesn’t’, The Peterson Institute for International Economics, 7 January. After five years of financial crisis, the European record is in: Northern Europe is sound, thanks to austerity, while Southern Europe is hurting because of half-hearted austerity or, worse, fiscal stimulus. The predominant Keynesian thinking has been tested, and it has failed spectacularly.”
Wulfgramm, Melike, Fervers, (2013), ‘Unemployment and Subsequent Employment Stability: Does Labour Market Policy Matter?’, IZA Discussion Paper, N. 7193. This paper analyses the effect of unemployment insurance generosity and active labour market policy on reemployment stability in Europe. Using EU‐SILC and OECD data, we conduct discrete time survival analyses with shared frailty specification to identify policy effects at the micro and macro level. Empirical evidence suggests that unemployment benefit receipt is …Read More
