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From Systemic Banking Crises to Fiscal Costs: Risk Factors

Amaglobeli, David, End, Nicolas, Jarmuzek, Mariusz, Palomba, Geremia, (2015), “From Systemic Banking Crises to Fiscal Costs: Risk Factors”, IMF Working Paper/WP/15/166, Fiscal Affairs Department, July This paper examines the risk factors associated with fiscal costs of systemic banking crises using cross-country data. We differentiate between immediate direct fiscal costs of government intervention (e.g., recapitalization and asset purchases) and overall fiscal costs of banking crises as proxied by changes in the public debt-to-GDP ratio. We find that both …Read More

Germany, Greece, and the Future of Europe

Sachs, Jeffrey, (2015), “Germany, Greece, and the Future of Europe”, Project Syndicate, 20 July I have been helping countries to overcome financial crises for 30 years, and have studied the economic crises of the twentieth century as background to my advisory work. In all crises, there is an inherent imbalance of power between creditor and debtor. Successful crisis management therefore depends on the creditor’s wisdom. In this regard, I strongly …Read More

Greece and Germany’s game of chicken

Boehnke, Olaf, (2015), “Greece and Germany’s game of chicken”, European Council on Foreign Relations Commentary, 17 July “We are both heading for the cliff. Who jumps first is the chicken” were the famous last words of James Dean’s opponent in the classic movie “Rebel Without A Cause”. The game of chicken is a standard model of conflict for two players in game theory. While game theorist and sometime finance minister Yanis …Read More

The dark clouds of peace-Built to foster friendship, the euro is manufacturing misery instead

Economist, (2015), “The dark clouds of peace-Built to foster friendship, the euro is manufacturing misery instead”, 18 July UNRAVELLING the tangled logic of Greece’s bail-out talks, Charlemagne has learned, is a little like trying to explain the rules of cricket to an American. How to make sense of a process in which Greek voters loudly spurn a euro-zone bail-out offer in a referendum, only to watch Alexis Tsipras, their prime …Read More

The New Intergovernmentalism: European Integration in the Post-Maastricht Era

Bickerton, Christopher, Hodson, Dermot, Puetter, Uwe, (2015), “The New Intergovernmentalism: European Integration in the Post-Maastricht Era”, Journal of Common Market Studies, Volume 53, Issue 4, pages 703–722, July 2015 The post-Maastricht period is marked by an integration paradox. While the basic constitutional features of the European Union have remained stable, EU activity has expanded to an unprecedented degree. This form of integration without supranationalism is no exception or temporary deviation from traditional …Read More

Does Banking Union Worsen the EU’s Democratic Deficit? The Need for Greater Supervisory Data Transparency

Gandrud, Christopher, Hallerberg, Mark, (2015), “Does Banking Union Worsen the EU’s Democratic Deficit? The Need for Greater Supervisory Data Transparency”, Journal of Common Market Studies, Volume 53, Issue 4, Pages 703–935,  July 2015 Does banking union exacerbate the European Union’s democratic deficit? Using Scharpf’s ‘input’ and ‘output’ legitimacy concepts, it is argued in this article that its design does worsen the democratic deficit. There are good reasons to limit ‘input legitimacy’ for …Read More

Germany, Not Greece, Should Exit the Euro

Mody, Ashoka, (2015), ” Germany, Not Greece, Should Exit the Euro”, Bloomberg View, 17 July The latest round of wrangling between Greece and its European creditors has demonstrated yet again that countries with such disparate economies should never have entered a currency union. It would be better for all involved, though, if Germany rather than Greece were the first to exit. Relevant Posts Gow, David, (2015), “Germany Undoes 70 Years …Read More

Minimum Wage or Living Income?

Skideslky, Robert, 92015), “Minimum Wage or Living Income?”, Project Syndicate, 16 Ιουλίου Most rich countries now have millions of “working poor” – people whose jobs do not pay enough to keep them above the poverty line, and whose wages therefore have to be subsidized by the state. These subsidies take the form of tax credits.The idea is a very old one. England implemented its “Speenhamland” system – a form of …Read More

Greece Surrendered, But The Real Defeat Was For Europe

Cox, Michael, (2015), “Greece Surrendered, But The Real Defeat Was For Europe”, Social Europe Journal, 16 July In a recent article on the Greek crisis, I argued that a much bigger game was being played out in Europe over Greece – and the name of that game was deterrence. In plain English, make the terms of any deal with any rebellious, indebted, government in Europe so tough – almost unacceptable – that …Read More

OECD Employment Outlook 2015

The high and persistent youth joblessness level also remains a major concern. While levels have peaked in the worst hit countries of Southern Europe, youth unemployment remains above pre-crisis level in nearly every OECD country. The share of young people neither employed nor in education or training, the so-called NEETs, is still higher than in 2007 in more than three quarters of OECD countries among 20-24 year-olds and nearly two …Read More