European Commission, (2016), “European Business Cycle Indicators – 4th Quarter 2015”, European Commission publications, Technical Paper 5, January Following up on the analysis in the previous issue of the EBCI, this quarter’s special topic investigates whether new ways of aggregating the results of the harmonised EU consumer survey can produce confidence indicators which are more powerful than DG ECFIN’s established CCI in forecasting turning points in private consumption growth. Relevant …Read More
Eurosystem Staff Macroeconomic Projections for the Euro Area
European Central Bank, (2015), “Eurosystem Staff Macroeconomic Projections for the Euro Area”, ECB Macroeconomic Projections, December The economic recovery in the euro area is expected to continue. Real GDP is projected to increase by 1.5% in 2015, 1.7% in 2016 and 1.9% in 2017. The overall outlook is broadly unchanged compared with the previous exercise, but the outlook for domestic demand is stronger, while that for foreign demand is weaker. Inflation is expected …Read More
Give Recovery a Chance
Timbeau, Xavier, et al., (2015), “GIVE RECOVERY A CHANCE”, independent Annual Growth Survey (iAGS) 2016, Fourth Report, 25 November. The ongoing recovery of the EA economy is too slow to achieve a prompt return to full employment. Despite apparent improvement in the labour market, the crisis is still developing under the covers, with the risk of leaving long-lasting “scars”, or a “scarification” of the social fabric in the EA. Moreover, the EA …Read More
Progress towards meeting the economic criteria for EU accession: the EU Commission’s 2015 assessments
European Commission, (2015), “Progress towards meeting the economic criteria for EU accession: the EU Commission’s 2015 assessments”, Institutional Papers 015, December A compilation of the economic chapters of the European Commission’s 2015 Country Reports on countries looking to join the EU. Relevant Posts Forgó, Balázs, Jevčák, Anton, (2015), “Economic Convergence of Central and Eastern European EU Member States over the Last Decade (2004-2014)”, European Commission publications, Discussion Paper 001, JULY 2015 Gross, Marco, Poblacion, …Read More
Euro area sees employment rebound
European Central Bank, (2015), “Euro area sees employment rebound”, Economic Bulletin, 14 December Euro area headcount employment has increased by over 2.2 million since the post-crisis low in the middle of 2013. This article investigates the sources and characteristics of this rebound, finding that it is heavily concentrated in some of the worst-hit labour markets, to a considerable extent in low productivity sectors. Relevant Posts ECB (2015) Update on Economic …Read More
Annual Growth Survey 2016: Strengthening the recovery and fostering convergence
European Commission – Press release, (2015), “Annual Growth Survey 2016: Strengthening the recovery and fostering convergence”, European Commission, Brussels, 26 November. Today’s package launches the annual cycle of economic governance. It sets out general economic and social priorities for the EU and gives Member States policy guidance for the following year. Policy challenges vary across countries, so responses will also vary. However, there are overarching themes that affect the EU as a …Read More
Tax reforms in EU Member States 2015-Tax policy challenges for economic growth and fiscal sustainability
European Commission, (2015),”Tax reforms in EU Member States 2015-Tax policy challenges for economic growth and fiscal sustainability”, Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs (ECFIN) and Directorate General for Taxation and Customs Union (TAXUD), European Economy/Institutional Paper 008/September 2015, November. The report ‘Tax reforms in EU Member States’ serves four main purposes. Firstly, it reviews the most important tax reforms recently implemented in EU Member States. Secondly, it discusses a number …Read More
Wage Moderation in Crises-Policy Considerations and Applications to the Euro Area
Decressin, Jörg, Espinoza, Raphael, Halikias, Ioannis, Leigh,Daniel, Loungani, Prakash, Medas, Paulo, Mursula, Susanna, Schindler, Martin, Spilimbergo, Antonio, Xu,TengTeng, (2015), “Wage Moderation in Crises-Policy Considerations and Applications to the Euro Area”, IMF, November. This paper discusses the short-run economic impact of wage moderation and the implications for policy in the context of the euro area crisis, with a focus on the roles of monetary policy and the zero lower bound (ZLB). It explores the channels …Read More
The IMF’s analysis of the Irish bailout
Vox editor’s, “The IMF’s analysis of the Irish bailout”, Voxeu, 17 November The IMF, together with CEPR and the Central Bank of Ireland, put on a conference that drew lessons from Ireland’s bailout package titled “Ireland: Lessons from its Recovery from the Bank-Sovereign Loop”. This column summarises the contributions by Eichengreen, Fatás and Schoenmaker, as well as panel comments by Christine Lagarde, Benoît Coeuré, Michael Noonan, and Valdis Dombrovskis. Relevant Posts …Read More
Global Financial Stability Report-October 2015
International Monetary Fund, (2015), “Global Financial Stability Report October 2015 – Vulnerabilities, Legacies, and Policy Challenges Risks Rotating to Emerging Markets”, World Economic and Financial Surveys, October. During the past six months financial stability has improved in advanced economies, but risks continue to rotate toward emerging markets amid a lower risk appetite and higher market and liquidity risks. In advanced economies, growth is gaining traction, and monetary policy normalization is approaching in …Read More