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Stabilisation and rebalancing with fiscal or monetary devaluation: a model-based comparison

Vogel, Lukas, (2015), “Stabilisation and rebalancing with fiscal or monetary devaluation: a model-based comparison”, Discussion Paper No. 22, European Commission publications, December This paper takes a theoretical look at the extent to which fiscal devaluation policies, such as shifting the tax burden from labour to consumption, can achieve the same benefits as nominal exchange rate depreciation. Relevant Posts Delbecque, B., (2013), “Proposal for a Stabilisation Fund for the EMU”, Centre for …Read More

Italy’s Spending Maze Runner – An analysis of the structure and evolution of public expenditure in Italy

Lorenzani, Dimitri, Reitano, Vito Ernesto, (2015), “Italy’s Spending Maze Runner – An analysis of the structure and evolution of public expenditure in Italy”, Discussion Paper No. 23, European Commission publications, December This paper explores the composition and developments of public expenditure in Italy and compares them with other big Member States. On the basis of this analysis, it draws several possible policy implications. Based on the latest available data by economic classification and …Read More

Re-examining the Middle Income Trap Hypothesis: What to Reject and What to Revive?

Han, Xuehui, Wei, Shang-Jin, (2015), “Re-examining the Middle Income Trap Hypothesis: What to Reject and What to Revive?”, Centre for Economic Policy Research, December. Do middle-income countries face difficult challenges producing consistent growth? Using transition matrix analysis, we can easily reject any unconditional notion of a “middle-income trap” in the data. However, countries have different fundamentals and policies. Using a non-parametric classification technique, we search for variables that separate fast- and slow-growing countries. For …Read More

Crisis Program Review

Gottlieb, Geoff, N’Diaye, Papa, et al., (2015),“Crisis Program Review”, IMF, 9 November. This paper provides an updated review of Fund-supported programs undertaken during the global financial crisis. It follows a series of previous reviews during 2009–12 that assessed program design and outcomes during the surge in Fund supported programs since 2008. The review covers experience during 2008–15 for 32 arrangements financed from the Fund’s general resources account (GRA). It covers 27 countries for which …Read More

European Public Finances and the Great Recession: France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom Compared

Bozio, Antoine, Emmerson, Carl, Peichl, Andreas, Tetlow, Gemma, (2015), “European Public Finances and the Great Recession: France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom Compared”,   Institute for Fiscal Studies, Volume 36, Issue 4, 2015. We compare economic trends over the financial crisis, and the tax and benefit reforms implemented in response, across six EU countries. Countries where the crisisled to a relatively greater increase in public spending than a decline in tax …Read More

Debt Maturity : Does It Matter for Fiscal Space?

Kim, Jun Il, (2015), “Debt Maturity : Does It Matter for Fiscal Space?”, IMF Papers, 9 December. This paper examines how debt maturity affects the debt limit, defined as the maximum amount of debt a government can afford without defaulting. We develop a model where investors are risk neutral, the primary balance is stochastic but exogenous, and default occurs solely due to the government’s inability to pay. We find that debt …Read More

Financial regulatory transparency: new data and implications for EU policy

Copelovitch, Mark, Gandrud, Christopher, Hallerberg, Mark, (2015), “Financial regulatory transparency: new data and implications for EU policy”, Bruguel Publications, Issue 2015/20, 10 December. This paper introduces a new international financial regulatory data transparency index – the Financial Regulatory Transparency (FRT) Index – in order to address the exisiting gap in measuring regulatory transparency. Relevant Posts Gandrud, Christopher, Hallerberg, Mark, (2015), “Does Banking Union Worsen the EU’s Democratic Deficit? The Need for Greater Supervisory Data Transparency”, Journal …Read More

Countries under Adjustment Programmes: What role for the ECB?

Gros, Daniel, (2015), “Countries under Adjustment Programmes: What role for the ECB?”, CEPS, 10 December. Providing ‘technical assistance/advice’ on programmes for countries under financial stress is well within the mandate of the European Central Bank (ECB). Being fully part of the Troika, however, is a different role. Formally the ECB does not participate in the ‘decision-making’ on programmes (decisions are taken by the Finance Ministers – and the IMF). However, the …Read More

Fiscal Consolidation During Times of High Unemployment: The Role of Productivity Gains and Wage Restraint

Lama, Ruy, Guzman Medina, Juan Pablo, (2015), “Fiscal Consolidation During Times of High Unemployment: The Role of Productivity Gains and Wage Restraint”, IMF Papers, 10 December. This paper studies the Swedish fiscal consolidation episode of the 1990s through the lens of a small open economy model with distortionary taxation and unemployment. We argue that the simultaneous reduction in the fiscal deficit and unemployment rate in this episode stems from two factors: (i) high …Read More

Looking for a success in the euro crisis adjustment programs: the case of Portugal

Reis, Ricardo, (2015), “Looking for a success in the euro crisis adjustment programs: the case of Portugal”, Centre for Economic Policy Research, December. Portugal’s adjustment program in 2010-14 under the troika was extensive and aimed at addressing its large debt and anemic growth, so it may serve as a blueprint for reforms in the Eurozone. This paper argues that, conditional on a diagnosis of the underlying problems of the Portuguese economy, the …Read More