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How to avert the risk of deflation in Europe: rethinking the policy mix and European economic governance

Theodoropoulou, Sotiria, (2015), “How to avert the risk of deflation in Europe: rethinking the policy mix and European economic governance”, European trade union institute, No 16, 2015. This policy brief discusses the risks of deflation for the European economy. It critically evaluates the European economic governance for not having averted this risk and discusses how a more coordinated approach to both fiscal policy and collective wage bargaining, both aiming at national …Read More

The Nordic Labor Market and Migration

Ho, Giang, Shirono, Kazuko, (2015), “The Nordic Labor Market and Migration”, IMF papers, 4 December The large influx of migrants to Nordic countries in recent years is challenging the adoptability of Nordic labor market institutions while also adding to potential growth. This paper examines the trends, economic drivers, and labor market implications of migration to Nordic countries with a particular focus on economic migration as distinct from the recent large flows of …Read More

Completing the Banking Union: Deposit Insurance

Gros, Daniel, (2015), “Completing the Banking Union: Deposit Insurance”, Ceps publications, 3 December. It is generally agreed that a Banking Union should have common or ‘single’ institutions responsible for carrying out three basic functions: supervision, resolution and deposit insurance.  So far, however, agreement has been reached in the EU on only the first two of these functions. The Commission has now presented its proposal on how to complete the Banking Union with a …Read More

Sovereign Debt Restructurings: Preemptive or Post-Default

Asonuma, Tamon, Trebesch, Christoph, (2015), “Sovereign Debt Restructurings: Preemptive or Post-Default”, Centre for Economic Policy Research, November. Sovereign debt restructurings can be implemented preemptively – prior to a payment default. We code a comprehensive new dataset and find that preemptive restructurings (i) are frequent (38% of all deals 1978-2010), (ii) have lower haircuts, (iii) are quicker to negotiate, and (iv) see lower output losses. To rationalize these stylized facts, we build a …Read More

Does the CAMEL bank ratings system follow a procyclical pattern?

Papanikolaou, Nikolaos I., Wolff, Christian C, (2015), “Does the CAMEL bank ratings system follow a procyclical pattern?”, Centre for Economic Policy Research, November. The financial crisis which erupted in 2007-8 has illustrated the disruptive effects of procyclicality. The phenomenon of procyclicality refers to the mutually reinforcing interactions between the financial system and the real economy that tend to amplify business cycle fluctuations. These fluctuations can cause or exacerbate turbulences in the financial system …Read More

On Zombie Banks and Recessions after Systemic Banking Crises

Homar, Timotej, Wijnbergen, Sweder van, (2015), “On Zombie Banks and Recessions after Systemic Banking Crises”, Centre for Economic Policy Research, November. What costs do zombie banks impose on society? We analyze the effects of government and central bank interventions in 68 systemic banking crises since 1980, of which 28 are part of the recent global financial crisis. Our estimation approach controls for the correlation between intervention measures and the time-invariant component of unobservable crisis …Read More

On the separation of monetary and prudential policy: how much of the pre-crisis consensus remains?

G Cecchetti, Stephen, (2015), “On the separation of monetary and prudential policy: how much of the pre-crisis consensus remains?”, Centre for Economic Policy Research, November. Prior to the crisis, monetary policymakers and prudential authorities had clearly defined tools and goals with little or no conflict. The crisis revealed a variety of overlaps, where one set of policies seem to influence those in another. Does this mean that two policy realms …Read More

How Do Public Debt Cycles Interact with Financial Cycles?

Poghosyan, Tigran, (2015), “How Do Public Debt Cycles Interact with Financial Cycles?”, IMF, Νovember. We employ a duration model to study determinants of public debt cycles in 57 advanced and emerging economies over the 1960–2014 period, with a particular focus on the impact of financial cycles. The results suggest that the association between financial and debt cycles is asymmetric. Debt expansions preceded by overheating in credit and financial markets tend to …Read More

Estimating the Bridge Financing Needs of the Single Resolution Fund: How expensive is it to resolve a bank?

De Groen, Willem Pieter, Gros, Daniel, (2015), “Estimating the Bridge Financing Needs of the Single Resolution Fund: How expensive is it to resolve a bank?”, CEPS, No. 122, November. The Single Resolution Board (SRB) will be responsible for the resolution of banks in the euro area from 1 January 2016. However, the resources of the Single Resolution Fund (SRF) at the disposal of the SRB will only gradually be built up until 2023. This paper …Read More

Asset purchase programmes and financial markets: lessons from the euro area

Altavilla, Carlo, Carboni ,  Giacomo, Motto,  Roberto, (2015), “Asset purchase programmes and financial markets: lessons from the euro area”, Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, 5 November We evaluate the effects on asset prices of the ECB asset purchase programme (APP) announced in January 2015 and assess its main transmission channels. We do so by first extending a term structure model with bond supply effects to account for assets with different types of …Read More