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Populism Versus Prosperity

Emmott, Bill, (2017), “Populism Versus Prosperity”, Project Syndicate, 9 March Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s far-right National Front, claims that the twenty-first century’s defining battle will be between patriotism and globalism. US President Donald Trump appears to believe that it will be between “the very fake news media” and himself, backed by “the people” he claims to represent. They are both wrong. The battle that will actually define …Read More

The EU’s new white paper underlines why Europe needs to be more open to its citizens

Schmidt, Vivien, Wood, Matt, (2017), “The EU’s new white paper underlines why Europe needs to be more open to its citizens”, LSE EUROPP, 10 March At the start of March, the European Commission published a white paper ‘On the Future of Europe’. Vivien Schmidt and Matt Wood assess the Commission’s proposals, arguing that while the paper’s focus on differentiated integration is pragmatically useful under the current circumstances, this strategy could exacerbate …Read More

Europe’s Populists Aren’t the Threat You Think

Bershidsky, Leonid, (2017), “Europe’s Populists Aren’t the Threat You Think”, BloombergView, 7 March For more than a year, the big scare out of Europe has been that populist movements, often far-right and euroskeptic, would win elections across the continent. But electoral landscapes are shifting fast, and it’s time to consider a different scenario — in which the populists lose everywhere. Relevant Posts Gros, Daniel, (2017), “Can the EU survive in an …Read More

Stubborn Germans: Stuck In Austerity/Stability

Hacker, Björn, Koch, Cédric, (2017), “Stubborn Germans: Stuck In Austerity/Stability”, Social Europe, 27 February Led by the current and previous federal government under Chancellor Angela Merkel and her CDU, the advocates of a stability union for the most part favour preservation of the status quo of the EMU architecture. The fundamental reasons for the Eurozone crisis are from this angle to be blamed on the failure of the crisis states …Read More

Italexit is not a solution for Italy’s problems

Codogno, Lorenzo, Galli, Giampaolo, (2017), “Italexit is not a solution for Italy’s problems”, LSE EUROPP, 24 February Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement riding high in the polls in Italy has led to speculation over the prospect of the country leaving the euro.Lorenzo Codogno and Giampaolo Galli argue that an ‘Italexit’ would be a catastrophic scenario, with incommensurable economic, social, and political costs lasting for many years. They note that redenomination, and a likely …Read More

Only Germans Love the Euro These Days

Paul, Jean-Michel, (2017), “Only Germans Love the Euro These Days”, BloombergView, 17 February Political support for the single currency has been waning — especially in Germany’s two largest euro-zone trading partners. In both France and Italy, there is now a plurality of support for candidates who advocate a withdrawal from the euro, with pro-euro candidates gathering less than 30 percent in polls. Relevant Posts Merler, Sylvia, (2017), “Is Germany a currency …Read More

What will drive political uncertainty in 2017?

Wolff, Guntram B., (2017), “What will drive political uncertainty in 2017?”, Bruegel, 3 January 2017 promises to be another challenging year for Europe’s liberal democracies. The EU is facing three, or even four, elections in major member states. The Netherlands, France, Germany and possibly also Italy will go to the polls. The results of all four elections are far from certain at this stage. Indeed, voting behaviour seems to have …Read More

The Abandonment of Progress

Pisani-Ferry, Jean, (2017), “The Abandonment of Progress”, Project Syndicate, 2 January Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan are remembered for the laissez-faire revolution they launched in the early 1980s. They campaigned and won on the promise that free-market capitalism would unleash growth and boost prosperity. In 2016, Nigel Farage, the then-leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) who masterminded Brexit, and US President-elect Donald Trump campaigned and won on a very …Read More

Will Europe Let Germany Lead?

Fratzscher, Marcel, (2016), “Will Europe Let Germany Lead?”, Project Syndicate, 27 December The United Kingdom’s Brexit vote, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s referendum defeat and subsequent resignation, and Donald Trump’s election as President of the United States have created a power vacuum in the West, and in Europe. At a time when Europe needs to make important collective economic and foreign-policy decisions, domestic issues are preoccupying larger European Union member …Read More

The Crisis of Market Fundamentalism

Kaletsky, Anatole, (2016), “The Crisis of Market Fundamentalism”, Project Syndicate, 23 December The biggest political surprise of 2016 was that everyone was so surprised. I certainly had no excuse to be caught unawares: soon after the 2008 crisis, I wrote a book suggesting that a collapse of confidence in political institutions would follow the economic collapse, with a lag of five years or so. We’ve seen this sequence before. The …Read More